745
FXUS61 KCTP 030548
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1248 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST ON TRACK, WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
2) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE COLDER/SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING AIR AT
THE SURFACE. A FEW TO SEVERAL THOUSAND FT THICK LAYER OF
SLIGHTLY "ABOVE" FREEZING AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TUES MORNING
COMMUTE.
THE PRECIPITATION COULD START AS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. SUB-FREEZING READINGS COULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NE PA, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT
THERE.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN OF GENERALLY 0.10 OF
AN INCH OR LESS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL PA, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FOR
WED-FRI WILL SUPPORT A BIG SFC HIGH PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST.
THESE FEATURES WILL DIRECT PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE SLATED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING IN TO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S IN SOME AREAS
LATER IN THE WEEK. THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES BECOME PRETTY
STATIONARY AROUND OUR LATITUDE, BUT IT WILL BE WAVY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL SURGE OF COOLER AIR SLIDING DOWN FROM
THE NE (BACKDOOR COLD FRONT) FRIDAY-ISH. BUT, BY THEN, THE TEMPS
WILL BE SO WARM THAT NO THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP. IT
SHOULD ALL BE PLAIN RAIN. OUR WAVY FRONT WILL BE THE PATHWAY
FOR REPEATED SHOTS OF FORCING AND CONSTANT LIFT, AND IT WILL BE
A WET STRETCH OF TIME. BUT, THAT'S NOT NECESSARILY A BAD THING,
CONSIDERING SOME OF THE AREA IS STILL IN A LONG-TERM DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND WILL THICKEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING, WITH ALL TAF SITES LIKELY
SEEING IFR CEILINGS BY 15Z. STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN, THOUGH SOME SNOW OR SLEET MAY INITIALLY MIX IN, MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF UNV.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
FOR ALL CENTRAL PA TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH
JST COULD SEE A FEW HOURS WHERE CEILINGS BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A 40 TO 45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND REMAINS OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT. WHILE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, LLWS CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP AT AT JST, AOO, AND
UNV FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CLIMATE
IT WAS A VERY DRY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-JAN-FEB).
SOME OF OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE STATIONS CRACKED THE TOP-TEN OF
THEIR DRIEST WINTER SEASONS (DEC 1ST-FEB 28/29TH).
STATION TOTAL PRECIP RANK PERIOD OF
(INCHES) (DRIEST) RECORD (SINCE)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
ALTOONA 4.15 5TH 1948
BRADFORD 4.25 2ND 1957
HARRISBURG 6.05 17TH 1888
JOHNSTOWN 4.93 3RD 1892
WILLIAMSPORT 5.24 15TH 1895
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005-010>012-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ006-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-
066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ024-033>036-064.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...EVANEGO
KEY MESSAGES...EVANEGO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/EVANEGO
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...DANGELO
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