720
FXUS61 KCTP 031201
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
701 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FLEXED START TIME OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BACK TO 4/5AM FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COINCIDENT WITH ARRIVAL OF ICY MIX
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION BRINGS SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL/SCHOOL DELAYS EARLY TODAY
2) PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY
3) SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION
BRINGS SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL/SCHOOL DELAYS EARLY
TODAY
A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS CPA THIS MORNING. 11-12Z MESOANALYSIS MAX WET BULBS
STILL FAVOR SOME FRONT-END SLEET/SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS NOW PRIMARILY ZR.
LIGHT/MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION 0.10-0.10" EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BULK OF CENTRAL PA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.20"
POSSIBLE - PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY
TRANSITIONING PTYPES TO PLAIN RAIN. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY BE
EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN
FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY
ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE DRIEST WINTER SEASONS ON RECORD (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION), PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THE WET
PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH BASED
ON THE LATEST CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY PRECIP OUTLOOKS. SURGES OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WAVY OR SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONES IS PROJECTED TO DELIVER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CPA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH
PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING TREND
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. FCST MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
FRI-TUE AND MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
CENTRAL PA TAF SITES FROM LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH JST COULD SEE A FEW HOURS WHERE CEILINGS BRIEFLY
RISE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A 40 TO 45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND REMAINS OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT. WHILE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, LLWS CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP AT AT JST AND
POSSIBLY AOO AND UNV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CLIMATE
IT WAS A VERY DRY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-JAN-FEB).
SOME OF OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE STATIONS CRACKED THE TOP-TEN OF
THEIR DRIEST WINTER SEASONS (DEC 1ST-FEB 28/29TH).
STATION TOTAL PRECIP RANK PERIOD OF
(INCHES) (DRIEST) RECORD (SINCE)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
ALTOONA 4.15 5TH 1948
BRADFORD 4.25 2ND 1957
HARRISBURG 6.05 17TH 1888
JOHNSTOWN 4.93 3RD 1892
WILLIAMSPORT 5.24 15TH 1895
STATE COLLEGE 4.52 8TH 1893
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004-005-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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