982
FXUS61 KCTP 031616
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1116 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 1-2 DEG F AS LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS NIL. TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM -FRZA TO -RA IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK, SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL LIKELY BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 18Z
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION BRINGS SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
3) SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT WINTRY MIX WITH MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION
BRINGS SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME (VIA A 30-40 KT SWRLY SPEED
MAX AOA 2 KFT AGL) WILL GLIDE UP AND OVER THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
SUB-FREEZING COLD DOME OF AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CPA AND THE SUSQ
VALLEY TO SUSTAIN LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP (MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN)
ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION 0.01-0.05" EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL PA
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY
TRANSITIONING PTYPES TO PLAIN RAIN. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY BE
EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN
FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY
ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE DRIEST WINTER SEASONS ON RECORD (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION), PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THE WET
PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH BASED
ON THE LATEST CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY PRECIP OUTLOOKS. SURGES OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WAVY OR SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONES IS PROJECTED TO DELIVER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CPA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH
PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING TREND
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. FCST MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
FRI-TUE AND MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
CENTRAL AND SW PA AIRFIELDS IN THE 16-18Z PERIOD BEFORE CHANGING
TO PLAIN RAIN, WHILE KIPT AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST COULD HANG
ONTO THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION THROUGH 22Z TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL CENTRAL PA TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH JST COULD SEE A FEW HOURS WHERE
CEILINGS BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND REMAINS OVERHEAD INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY, LLWS CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP AT AT JST AND POSSIBLY
AOO AND UNV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CLIMATE
IT WAS A VERY DRY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-JAN-FEB).
SOME OF OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE STATIONS CRACKED THE TOP-TEN OF
THEIR DRIEST WINTER SEASONS (DEC 1ST-FEB 28/29TH).
STATION TOTAL PRECIP RANK PERIOD OF
(INCHES) (DRIEST) RECORD (SINCE)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
ALTOONA 4.15 5TH 1948
BRADFORD 4.25 2ND 1957
HARRISBURG 6.05 17TH 1888
JOHNSTOWN 4.93 3RD 1892
WILLIAMSPORT 5.24 15TH 1895
STATE COLLEGE 4.52 8TH 1893
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004-005-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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