417
FXUS61 KCTP 031940
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA TO EXPIRE AT 18Z TODAY AS THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP IS ENDING AND SFC TEMPS ARE INCHING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THAT REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRINGS ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
2) PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
3) SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRINGS ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS
INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME (VIA A 30-40 KT SWRLY SPEED
MAX AOA 2 KFT AGL) WILL GLIDE UP AND OVER THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
SUB-FREEZING COLD DOME OF AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CPA AND THE SUSQ
VALLEY TO SUSTAIN A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN ACROSS NCENT PA WITH PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION 0.01-0.05" EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
EFFECTIVELY TRANSITIONING PTYPE TO PLAIN RAIN. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY BE EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN
FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE DRIEST WINTER SEASONS ON RECORD (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION), PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THE WET
PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH BASED
ON THE LATEST CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY PRECIP OUTLOOKS. SURGES OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WAVY OR SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONES IS PROJECTED TO DELIVER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CPA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.
PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING TREND
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. FCST MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
FRI-TUE AND MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FALL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PA AIRFIELDS INTO TONIGHT, WHILE KIPT AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST COULD HANG ONTO THE LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT 22Z TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING THE SAME
COURSE OF PRECIP AS ELSEWHERE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR ALL CENTRAL PA TAF SITES FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH JST WILL SEE A FEW HOURS WHERE CEILINGS BRIEFLY
RISE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
A 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, LLWS
CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA TAF SITES
(LIKELY EXCLUDING KIPT, KMDT AND KLNS) WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
SHEAR EXPECTED AT JST EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
CLIMATE
IT WAS A VERY DRY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-JAN-FEB).
SOME OF OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE STATIONS CRACKED THE TOP-TEN OF
THEIR DRIEST WINTER SEASONS (DEC 1ST-FEB 28/29TH).
STATION TOTAL PRECIP RANK PERIOD OF
(INCHES) (DRIEST) RECORD (SINCE)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
ALTOONA 4.15 5TH 1948
BRADFORD 4.25 2ND 1957
HARRISBURG 6.05 17TH 1888
JOHNSTOWN 4.93 3RD 1892
WILLIAMSPORT 5.24 15TH 1895
STATE COLLEGE 4.52 8TH 1893
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ006-037-041-042.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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