053
FXUS61 KCTP 040054
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PA TO EXPIRE AT 18Z TODAY AS THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP IS ENDING AND SFC TEMPS ARE INCHING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THAT REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRINGS ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
2) PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
3) SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRINGS ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS
INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME (VIA A 30-40 KT SWRLY SPEED
MAX AOA 2 KFT AGL) WILL GLIDE UP AND OVER THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
SUB-FREEZING COLD DOME OF AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CPA AND THE SUSQ
VALLEY TO SUSTAIN A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CHANGING
TO RAIN ACROSS NCENT PA WITH PLAIN RAIN ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONAL MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION 0.01-0.05" EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
EFFECTIVELY TRANSITIONING PTYPE TO PLAIN RAIN. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY BE EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN
FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE DRIEST WINTER SEASONS ON RECORD (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION), PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THE WET
PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH BASED
ON THE LATEST CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY PRECIP OUTLOOKS. SURGES OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WAVY OR SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONES IS PROJECTED TO DELIVER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CPA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.
PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING TREND
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. FCST MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
FRI-TUE AND MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AS MILD, MOIST AIR MOVES OVER MOIST/COOL AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. LIFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG ARE EXPECTED REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT.
MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT KJST TOMORROW AS A STOUT
INVERSION AND UPSLOPING WINDS KEEP CLOUD CEILINGS LOW.
IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE MORNING AT
KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KLNS AS DAYLIGHT COULD HELP TO RAISE CLOUD
CEILINGS THROUGH DIURNAL MIXING, THOUGH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION LOOKS TO PREVENT FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER, AIRPORTS SUCH AS KBFD AND KIPT ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD.
NEVERTHELESS, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RETURN LATER IN THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PA, WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATE IN THE
DAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA LATER TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
PROB30 WAS ADDED TO KJST, KMDT, AND KLNS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME
TO SIGNAL AT THIS POSSIBILITY, WITH TIMING DETERMINED BY A BLEND
OF THE HRRR, NAM 3KM, AND HREF. RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KAOO DURING THAT PERIOD, THOUGH LOWER CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE PRECLUDES A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
LASTLY, A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS MOVING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING, WITH LLWS MENTIONS ADDED AT KJST,
KAOO, AND KUNV DUE TO THIS JET.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT.
FRI...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AIRFIELDS.
SAT...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST. VFR MOST LIKELY FROM KJST SOUTH AND WEST, WHERE WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY IN THE WARM SECTOR. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS LIKELY
WITH COLD FROPA.
SUN...TRENDING TOWARDS VFR.
CLIMATE
IT WAS A VERY DRY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (DEC-JAN-FEB).
SOME OF OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE STATIONS CRACKED THE TOP-TEN OF
THEIR DRIEST WINTER SEASONS (DEC 1ST-FEB 28/29TH).
STATION TOTAL PRECIP RANK PERIOD OF
(INCHES) (DRIEST) RECORD (SINCE)
------------ ------------ -------- --------------
ALTOONA 4.15 5TH 1948
BRADFORD 4.25 2ND 1957
HARRISBURG 6.05 17TH 1888
JOHNSTOWN 4.93 3RD 1892
WILLIAMSPORT 5.24 15TH 1895
STATE COLLEGE 4.52 8TH 1893
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ058.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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