834
FXUS61 KCTP 040415
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* POSTED FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NW
* LOWERED MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST FOR FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
2) SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. HOWEVER, TEMPS MAY BE LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PA.
3) FOG IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE AND EXPAND INTO MORE OF THE CWA
BY SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF MUCH-NEEDED RAIN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH; WET PATTERN
FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL LIKELY.
ON THE HEELS OF ONE OF THE DRIEST WINTER SEASONS ON RECORD (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION), PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. THE WET
PATTERN IS FAVORED TO LAST INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH BASED
ON THE LATEST CPC 6-10/8-14 DAY PRECIP OUTLOOKS. SURGES OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH WAVY OR SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL ZONES IS PROJECTED TO DELIVER TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CPA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING PATTERN RAMPS UP
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. HOWEVER, TEMPS
MAY BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PA.
PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC CENTERED UPPER
RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME WARMING TREND
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH. FCST MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
SAT-TUE AND MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS. FRI IS A BIG IF ON
TEMPS - MAINLY IN THE EAST. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND AN
EXPECTED BACKDOOR (MOVING DOWN FROM THE NE) COLD FRONT COULD
KEEP US MUCH COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. THIS HAS BEEN A
CONCERN/FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR A FEW DAYS, AND AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS WE'VE MADE A MOVE TO LOWER
FORECAST MAX TEMPS 4-6F OVER THE EAST. WE SHOULD GET MILDER
(HOT) ON SAT WITH GOOD SWRLY FLOW PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE
NE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FOG IS EXPECTED TO GET WORSE AND EXPAND INTO
MORE OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING WHILE TEMPS COOL A BIT OVERNIGHT, AND IS
AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR FOG TO GET DENSE AGAIN BY MORNING. THE
FOG IN THE NW HAS ALREADY BECOME DENSE, AND HREF/HRRR/SREF
PROGS ALL SHOW A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO KEEP VISBY DOWN AT BFD THRU 15Z. A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL THAT THE 1/4SM OR LESS FOG WILL LAST THAT LONG, BUT
IT'S A CERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT 8 HRS AT LEAST. LATER SHIFT WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO EXPAND THE ADVY, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
POST FOR ANYONE ELSE JUST YET. THEY JUST IMPROVED A BIT, ANYWAY.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AS MILD, MOIST AIR MOVES OVER MOIST/COOL AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. LIFR CLOUD CEILINGS AND IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
FOG ARE EXPECTED REGIONWIDE OVERNIGHT.
MINIMAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT KJST TOMORROW AS A STOUT
INVERSION AND UPSLOPING WINDS KEEP CLOUD CEILINGS LOW.
IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE MORNING AT
KAOO/KUNV/KMDT/KLNS AS DAYLIGHT COULD HELP TO RAISE CLOUD
CEILINGS THROUGH DIURNAL MIXING, THOUGH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION LOOKS TO PREVENT FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER, AIRPORTS SUCH AS KBFD AND KIPT ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS DRIER AIR OVERHEAD.
NEVERTHELESS, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RETURN LATER IN THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PA, WITH CLOUDS RETURNING LATE IN THE
DAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF NORTH-TO-SOUTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA LATER TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
PROB30 WAS ADDED TO KJST, KMDT, AND KLNS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME
TO SIGNAL AT THIS POSSIBILITY, WITH TIMING DETERMINED BY A BLEND
OF THE HRRR, NAM 3KM, AND HREF. RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KAOO DURING THAT PERIOD, THOUGH LOWER CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE PRECLUDES A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
LASTLY, A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS MOVING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING, WITH LLWS MENTIONS ADDED AT KJST,
KAOO, AND KUNV DUE TO THIS JET.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT.
FRI...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AIRFIELDS.
SAT...RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST. VFR MOST LIKELY FROM KJST SOUTH AND WEST, WHERE WINDS
COULD GET GUSTY IN THE WARM SECTOR. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS LIKELY
WITH COLD FROPA.
SUN...TRENDING TOWARDS VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
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