830
FXUS61 KCTP 191759
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONFIDENCE RISING IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RELATED
PRECIP ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH REFINEMENT OF
QPF.
* NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE LIKELY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES START A STEADY CLIMB TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
2) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY SHOULD MAKE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS PERHAPS ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH, FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COLDER TEMPS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
1) TEMPERATURES START A STEADY CLIMB TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF SPRINKLE.
NEXT WAVE IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A SFC LOW THAT MOVES OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE, THEN THRU THE FINGER LAKES. THERE
IS MORE MOISTURE CARRIED ALONG BY THE SYSTEM AND IT MAY ACTUALLY
TAP A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE AS IT REACHES OUR LONGITUDE.
CONSENSUS QPF IS AROUND 0.50" IN THE NRN TIER AND <0.25" IN THE
LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SHRA SHOULD ARRIVE
IN BFD AROUND OR JUST BEFORE NOON (WHEN TEMPS WILL BE 35-40F),
AND 4 PM IN JST- UNV-IPT. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND BE
OFF INTO MD AROUND 10-11 PM. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER THE WEST AS THEY PASS THRU. MAXES WILL END UP
ANOTHER 10F MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY (49-63F ACROSS THE CWA
FM N TO S).
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KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY SHOULD MAKE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PERHAPS ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COLDER TEMPS ON
MONDAY.
990MB SFC LOW OVER ND SAT EVENING WILL RIDE QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR
BUF SUN EVENING. THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PASS MAINLY NORTH OF PA FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME. A LITTLE -RA MAY
BRUSH THE FAR NRN TIER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MORE CERTAINTY
EXISTS IN THE PASSAGE OF THE CONNECTED COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
QPF SUN NIGHT ACTUALLY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S AMOUNTS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD AIR BEING FORCED IN FROM THE N AND THE RAINFALL WILL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS SUN NIGHT. DESPITE MAXES IN THE UPPER 50S IN
THE N (THEY'LL BE NEAR 70 FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA) ON
SUNDAY, THE COOLING WILL PROBABLY (50%) TURN THE RAIN TO SN OVER
THE NRN MTNS. IF IT DOES TURN TO SN THERE, IT SHOULDN'T OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SRN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE WARMER
START WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES. MAYBE A LITTLE MIX COULD HAPPEN ON
THE TOP OF THE RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MINS WILL BE 25-30F
IN THE N, BUT JUST ABOVE 40F ALONG THE MD BORDER (LOWER ELEVS).
THE PRECIP WILL BE S OF THE MD BORDER AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE MON.
MON-TUE LOOK DRY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. MODERATE
PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB/3 HR WILL SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS IN THE
HIGH 20S TO MID 30S (KTS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WENT
ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE BY 10 KTS OR SO IN THE WIND CATEGORY.
WED SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THU MUCH WARMER
WITH LOTS OF PLACES >=60F.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY MID TO HIGH-BASED STRATO CU CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. KBFD IS
THE ONLY AIRFIELD THAT WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO
NW PA THEN STALL OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE END OF THIS 18Z TAF
CYCLE AT KBFD AND IN THE 20-23Z WINDOW FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS OF PA AND SUSQ VALLEY RESPECTIVELY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.
SUN NIGHT - MON...COLD FRONT PASSAGE, RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN; SOME
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT
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