572
FXUS61 KCTP 200621
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
221 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SW PA VALID FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA
IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY.
2) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY SHOULD MAKE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS PERHAPS ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH, FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COLDER TEMPS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
1) A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA
IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWING A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL CROSS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW YORK STATE
ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH PW VALUES RISING TO NEAR 0.75
INCH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MOVING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS, A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS (EAST) AND THUNDERSTORMS (WEST) IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA, PERHAPS WITH A DRY BREAK
BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL. WITH 850 HPA FLOW BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS AND A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE, ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LAURELS
AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. TOTAL QPF IS PROGGED BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50
INCH. HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY (49-63F ACROSS THE CWA FM N TO S).
--------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY SHOULD MAKE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PERHAPS ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COLDER TEMPS ON
MONDAY.
990MB SFC LOW OVER ND SAT EVENING WILL RIDE QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR
BUF SUN EVENING. THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
PASS MAINLY NORTH OF PA FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME. A LITTLE -RA MAY
BRUSH THE FAR NRN TIER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MORE CERTAINTY
EXISTS IN THE PASSAGE OF THE CONNECTED COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
QPF SUN NIGHT ACTUALLY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S AMOUNTS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
COLD AIR BEING FORCED IN FROM THE N AND THE RAINFALL WILL
QUICKLY DROP TEMPS SUN NIGHT. DESPITE MAXES IN THE UPPER 50S IN
THE N (THEY'LL BE NEAR 70 FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA) ON
SUNDAY, THE COOLING WILL PROBABLY (50%) TURN THE RAIN TO SN OVER
THE NRN MTNS. IF IT DOES TURN TO SN THERE, IT SHOULDN'T OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SRN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA DUE TO THE WARMER
START WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES. MAYBE A LITTLE MIX COULD HAPPEN ON
THE TOP OF THE RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MINS WILL BE 25-30F
IN THE N, BUT JUST ABOVE 40F ALONG THE MD BORDER (LOWER ELEVS).
THE PRECIP WILL BE S OF THE MD BORDER AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE MON.
MON-TUE LOOK DRY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. MODERATE
PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB/3 HR WILL SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS IN THE
HIGH 20S TO MID 30S (KTS) DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WENT
ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE BY 10 KTS OR SO IN THE WIND CATEGORY.
WED SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THU MUCH WARMER
WITH LOTS OF PLACES >=60F.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON MOST RECENT ECONUS
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THE WHOLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE PROGGED BY MOST RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER,
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND ON CLOUDS GETTING INTO THE REGION HAS
BROUGHT TIMING ON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS A WHOLE. OVERALL,
EXPECT MINIMAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL
REALLY LOOKING TO BE AT BFD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS MVFR.
AFTER SUNRISE, MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS NW TO SE. AT THIS TIME, BEST CHANCES FOR
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AT BFD/JST WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON LOWER
CEILINGS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR REACHING IFR
THRESHOLDS HAVE HAD A SLIGHT UPTICK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE, SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS INTO SOLUTION WITH NBM/GLAMP
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO LIKING THIS TREND. A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JST/AOO IN THE 22Z FRI TO 03Z SAT TIMEFRAME
WITH CHANCES LOOKING LESS LIKELY FURTHER NORTH/EAST. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30S (WHICH MATCHES CURRENT
FORECAST AND MOST RECENT HREF LIGHTNING GUIDANCE) FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE (30-50%)
CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS JUST AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL,
THUS HAVE PENCILED IN SOME LLWS MENTIONS; HOWEVER, THIS IS AN
ASPECT THAT IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE AND
WILL NEED TO BE HAMMERED DOWN IN FUTURE CYCLES.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...TRENDING DRIER, MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
SUN...RAIN OVERSPREADS NORTH TO SOUTH, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF NORTH TO SOUTH, TRANSITION TO
SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 (BFD/IPT). RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS N PA LATE WHICH COULD BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS.
EQUIPMENT
KCCX RADAR IS OFFLINE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AS OF 1:30AM EDT ON
03/20/2026. TECHNICIANS WILL NEED TO VISIT THE RADAR SITE LATER
THIS MORNING TO DIAGNOSE THE PROBLEM AND REPAIR/RESTORE SERVICE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
AVIATION...BEATY
EQUIPMENT...BEATY
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