855
FXUS61 KCTP 201122
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
722 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY; OTHERWISE MINIMAL
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COUPLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
2) FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING WARMUP PRECEDES RAIN LATER ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COUPLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
NO CHANGE TO THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1 WHICH STILL SHOWS A LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL) SEVERE T-STORM RISK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST PA. HIRES MODELS DEPICT RAIN EXPANDING
FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY (MUCAPE <500 J/KG) WILL BE LIMITED AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER,
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
RAIN SHOULD EXIT MOST OF CPA BY 06Z WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
TO START THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING WARMUP PRECEDES RAIN
LATER ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY
MAX TEMPS FCST TO RISE +10-20 DEGREES DAY/DAY TO KICKOFF THE
FIRST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SPRING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S BEFORE A PERIOD OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW T-STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK LOCATED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. COLDER TEMPS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
COULD MIX/TURN RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
PROJECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY AND
PUNCTUATED BY A CHILLY AND BRISK/GUSTY NW WIND.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE MORE TEMPERATURE SWINGS UP
AND DOWN WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS NW TO SE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, NBM/GLAMP
MODEL GUIDANCE OUTLINES WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD. BASED ON RECENT RAP MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS AT
BFD AFTER 02Z SATURDAY, THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS JUNCTURE. A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF JST/AOO BETWEEN 22Z FRI TO 03Z SAT WITH
CHANCES LOOKING LESS LIKELY FURTHER NORTH/EAST. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, HAVE CONTINUED PROB30S (WHICH MATCHES CURRENT
FORECAST AND MOST RECENT HREF LIGHTNING GUIDANCE) FOR THIS
POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING/CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY COME IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE AS
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. AFTER SHRA ENDS (MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
OFFSET TIMING), MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MIXED SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT, THUS HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO GLAMP MODEL
GUIDANCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS JUNCTURE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE) ACROSS
WESTERN TERMINALS JUST AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL, THUS HAVE
CONTINUED LOW-END LLWS MENTIONS; HOWEVER, THIS IS AN ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
AND WILL NEED TO BE HAMMERED DOWN IN FUTURE CYCLES.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...TRENDING DRIER, MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
SUN...RAIN OVERSPREADS NORTH TO SOUTH, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF NORTH TO SOUTH, TRANSITION TO
SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 (BFD/IPT). RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS N PA LATE WHICH COULD BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING (VERNAL EQUINOX) OFFICIALLY BEGINS TODAY
MARCH 20TH AT 10:46 A.M.
EQUIPMENT
KCCX RADAR IS OFFLINE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AS OF 1:30AM EDT ON
03/20/2026. TECHNICIANS WILL NEED TO VISIT THE RADAR SITE LATER
THIS MORNING TO DIAGNOSE THE PROBLEM AND REPAIR/RESTORE SERVICE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
EQUIPMENT...BEATY
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