518
FXUS61 KCTP 201734
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WELCOME TO SPRING!
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS FOR TODAY; OTHERWISE MINIMAL
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COUPLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
2) FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING WARMUP PRECEDES RAIN LATER ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COUPLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
NO CHANGE TO THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1 WHICH STILL SHOWS A LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL) SEVERE T-STORM RISK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST PA.
CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE THETA-E RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRLY
LLJ TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT (SOUTHERN
NY) AND WARM FRONT (EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY).
LLVL DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE MEAGER (ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S
UPSTREAM ACROSS SW OHIO), BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH ENHANCED DEEP LAYER UVVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT BRANCH (AND LEFT EXIT REGION) OF A 140+ KT
NWRLY UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
DETAILS NOTED BELOW W/RESPECT TO THE TYPE OF CONVECTION AND
FAIRLY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ARE STILL VALID.
HIRES MODELS DEPICT RAIN EXPANDING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
<500 J/KG) WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-80. HOWEVER, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF
LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT MOST OF CPA
BY 06Z WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT TO START THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING WARMUP PRECEDES RAIN
LATER ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY
MAX TEMPS FCST TO RISE +10-20 DEGREES DAY/DAY TO KICKOFF THE
FIRST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SPRING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S BEFORE A PERIOD OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW T-STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK LOCATED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. COLDER TEMPS BLEEDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
COULD MIX/TURN RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
PROJECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY AND
PUNCTUATED BY A CHILLY AND BRISK/GUSTY NW WIND.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE MORE TEMPERATURE SWINGS UP
AND DOWN WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS AN
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET AS THE RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE, AND
SHOULD LOWER FURTHER TO MVFR AT BFD. MVFR VISIBILITY WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STEADY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER (AROUND 30
PERCENT) AT JST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A
40 TO 50 KNOTS LOW-LEVEL JET CROSSING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS INTO THE LATE EVENING.
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MDT AND LNS.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME FOG MAY FORM, WITH THE
HREF SHOWING A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1
MILE AT BFD. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM NEAR MDT AND LNS AS SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...RAIN OVERSPREADS NORTH TO SOUTH, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF NORTH TO SOUTH, TRANSITION TO
SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 (BFD/IPT). RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA LATE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
WED...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PA WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL SPRING (VERNAL EQUINOX) OFFICIALLY BEGINS TODAY
MARCH 20TH AT 10:46 A.M.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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