008
FXUS61 KCTP 211743
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK LEVEL INCREASED FROM 1 TO 2 FOR SUNDAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING WARMUP PRECEDES RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING WARMUP PRECEDES RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A NICE START TO SPRING THIS WEEKEND WITH FCST HIGHS RAMPING 15
TO 30F ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. THIS SURGE OF
WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AND FOLLOWED BY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN ON
MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS 20-30 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY.
MAIN FACTOR FOR STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THAT
DEWPOINTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH, LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD BACK ON
MONDAY. MORE OF AN INVERTED V PROFILE, WHERE THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH FAST CELL MOVEMENT CAN SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUST.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME SPOTS COULD GET SOME HIGHER QPF AMTS.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE LIMITED BY FAST CELL MOVEMENT AND IF ANY
CELLS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO NOT REAL WET ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
OTHER THING TO WATCH IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LAST 2 EVENTS RESULTED IN
SNOW EITHER IN OUR AREA OR NEARBY CWA AREAS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SPC EXPANDED THE LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA (SOUTH OF I-80) FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL PROBS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES 7-7.5 C/KM AND
ESSENTIALLY MATCH THE DAMAGING WIND PROBS.
SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DELMARVA/SRN NJ
SHOULD HOLD UP THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW COLDER TEMPS TO
BLEED/CREEP SOUTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP BAND AS IT EXITS
THE AREA. A COATING OF SNOW UP TO 0.5" IS MOST LIKELY ON NON-
PAVED SFCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BY 12Z MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
ON MONDAY ARE PROJECTED TO BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SUNDAY, PUNCTUATED BY A CHILLY AND BRISK/GUSTY NW WIND.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE MORE TEMPERATURE SWINGS UP
AND DOWN WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN
THE 21/00Z MODEL CYCLE IS IN THE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO EASTERN PA AFTER 06Z. THIS
SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TO IPT, MDT,
AND LNS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
ELSEWHERE. A 40 TO 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LLWS
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT FOR BFD, JST, AOO, AND POSSIBLY UNV.
CLOUDS LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
CEILINGS AT BFD LIKELY BECOMING MVFR BY 16Z AS A FEW SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS EASTERN
PA, THOUGH, AS THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE.. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AFTER 18Z ON
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
OUTLOOK...
MON...RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF NORTH TO SOUTH, TRANSITION TO
SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 (BFD/IPT). RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA LATE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
WED...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1938
WILLIAMSPORT 82 IN 1938
ALTOONA 81 IN 1966
STATE COLLEGE 80 IN 1938
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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