795
FXUS61 KCTP 221806
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE CHANGE IN SUNDAY'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
BUILT OUT MORE DETAILS PERTAINING TO TIMING AND THREATS.
* ADDED MENTIONS OF ICING POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING WITH
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
2) SOME ICING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE PA, SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, HIGHEST CHANCES
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN
INDIANA SURGING TOWARDS THE REGION. RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE PROBABILITIES (GENERALLY BETWEEN
50-70%) FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S
THIS AFTERNOON FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF I-80. BULK WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BY THIS TIME WILL ALSO MARKEDLY INCREASE WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CAPE WITH
SOME RECENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IF THESE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO PAN OUT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE
THREAT. FOR REFERENCE, MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE LOWER END OF CAPE
VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 500-600 J/KG WHILE HIGHER-END SOLUTIONS
OF CAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG AND PUSH CLOSER TO THE 1500 J/KG
MARK WHICH WOULD BE MUCH MORE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPREAD IS MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS WHERE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER LATER
TODAY.
ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, SPC HAS CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE THERE IS THERE
REMAINS SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE SHEAR
IN PLACE. FACT CELL MOVEMENT WILL ALSO GIVE AMPLE CONVECTIVE AND
KINEMATIC ENERGY TO SUPPORT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA BEARS WATCHING, WITH STEEP (7-7.5
C/KM) 700-500MB LAPSE RATES CONTINUING TO BE SIGNALED IN RECENT
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SPC
OUTLINES WITH THEIR CIG1 HATCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THESE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED IN THE
2PM TO 9PM TIMEFRAME TODAY, GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH-TO-SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN TERMS OF THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE REGION, THERE REMAINS
A NON-ZERO THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTH OF I-80. THIS THREAT IS
NOT AS ROBUST AS THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ONE OF THE MAIN
NEGATIVES WITH RESPECT TO THE TORNADO THREAT READ OUT IN LOOKING
AT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LCLS THIS AFTERNOON. LCLS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY HIGH WITH RECENT RAP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LCLS
BETWEEN 2000-3000M ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE
HIGHER CLOUD BASES WILL MAKE IT SLIGHTLY HARDER (NOT IMPOSSIBLE)
TO FORM, ESPECIALLY WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.
LASTLY, FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE PUSHED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH MORE
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHEST RAINFALL SIGNALS
APPEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WHERE RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR
CONTINUES WITH D1-D2 DROUGHT. FFGS IN THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXCEEDED IN THE ONE-HOUR TIMEFRAME, WHERE WE'RE
LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW ONE INCH TO EXCEED GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS, NOT FORESEEING A LOT OF HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES WITH THIS
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME ICING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE PA, SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE POCONOS IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RECENT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST RECENT
HREF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY UP WITH RESPECT TO
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TIOGA, NORTHERN LYCOMING, AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WITH A STEEP
DROP OFF FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END
SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS THREAT SEEMS RELATIVELY MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME AND A TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (BELOW ONE INCH) POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN TIER.
COMPARING TO RECENT EVENTS ABOUT A WEEK AGO, THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS RAPID AND WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK'S EVENT; HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT WITH A FAIRLY QUICK
TEMPERATURE DROP THAT SURFACES THAT REMAIN WET WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FREEZE AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS FOR
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AT THIS TIME, HAVE INTRODUCED
MENTIONS IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
ACROSS THE POCONOS WITH THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE; HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA AS SHOWERS MOVE
IN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL
TO AIRFIELDS SOUTH OF I-80. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA BEHIND THE
STORMS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE RAIN
ENDS AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA LATE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
WED...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...RAIN SHOWERS (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW) COMING TO AN END
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...BEATY
DISCUSSION...BEATY
AVIATION...BAUCO
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