998
FXUS61 KCTP 221945
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ENHANCED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
2) SOME ICING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE PA, SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, HIGHEST CHANCES
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
AT 19Z SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NW PA INTO NORTHERN
OH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CLOUDS, TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S DOWNWIND OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
THE SPC MESO DISCUSSION ISSUED 1902 UTC DISCUSSES AN 80 PCT CHC
OF WATCH ISSUANCE. GIVEN 50+ KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODEST
CAPE (A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES MLCAPE), CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL BE FAST
MOVING, FROM WEST TO EAST AT 40+ KTS, SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH OF A
DOWNDRAFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STILL COULD BE
SOME SEVERE HAIL IF ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, BUT THINKING CAPE
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR THERE GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE.
THERE IS ALSO A NONZERO TORNADO THREAT, THOUGH THIS THREAT IS
NOT AS HIGH AS THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. ONE OF THE MAIN NEGATIVES
WITH RESPECT TO THE TORNADO THREAT IS LCLS BETWEEN 1250-2500 M.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR - GENERALLY UP TO 1 INCH. NOT
FORESEEING MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP IN RECENT MONTHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SOME ICING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE PA, SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE POCONOS IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RECENT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST RECENT
HREF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY UP WITH RESPECT TO
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TIOGA, NORTHERN LYCOMING, AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WITH A STEEP
DROP OFF FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END
SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS THREAT SEEMS RELATIVELY MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME AND A TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (BELOW ONE INCH) POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN TIER.
COMPARING TO RECENT EVENTS ABOUT A WEEK AGO, THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS RAPID AND WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK'S EVENT; HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT WITH A FAIRLY QUICK
TEMPERATURE DROP THAT SURFACES THAT REMAIN WET WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FREEZE AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS FOR
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AT THIS TIME, HAVE INTRODUCED
MENTIONS IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
ACROSS THE POCONOS WITH THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE; HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA AS SHOWERS MOVE
IN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL
TO AIRFIELDS SOUTH OF I-80. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA BEHIND THE
STORMS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE RAIN
ENDS AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN PA LATE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
RESTRICTIONS.
WED...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...RAIN SHOWERS (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW) COMING TO AN END
IN THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT/BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT/BEATY
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/BEATY
AVIATION...BAUCO
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