247
FXUS61 KCTP 230638
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
238 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME ICING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE PA, SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME ICING POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE PA, SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE POCONOS IS POSSIBLE BASED ON RECENT MODEL
SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST RECENT
HREF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY UP WITH RESPECT TO
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TIOGA, NORTHERN LYCOMING, AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WITH A STEEP
DROP OFF FURTHER SOUTH/EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END
SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS THREAT SEEMS RELATIVELY MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME AND A TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (BELOW ONE INCH) POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN TIER.
COMPARING TO RECENT EVENTS ABOUT A WEEK AGO, THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS RAPID AND WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK'S EVENT; HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT WITH A FAIRLY QUICK
TEMPERATURE DROP THAT SURFACES THAT REMAIN WET WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FREEZE AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS FOR
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AT THIS TIME, HAVE INTRODUCED
MENTIONS IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
ACROSS THE POCONOS WITH THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE; HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BAND OF DRENCHING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
TSRA IMPACTS AT KMDT/KLNS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED
IFR/LIFR IS AT KBFD ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS
COLDER NNW FLOW RAMPS UP FROM 310-340 DEGREES. SFC WIND GUSTS
25-35KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DON'T THINK THE MODELS ARE
BULLISH ENOUGH ON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PRELIM -SHSN AT KBFD AND KJST. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVER CPA TUESDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...LIGHT RAIN MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER.
THU NIGHT-AM FRIDAY...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CLIMATE
FOR MARCH 22ND, HARRISBURG TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH (80) AND
ALTOONA SET A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH (83). THE PREVIOUS RECORD
HIGHS WERE 80 (1938) AND 81 (1966).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT/BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT/BEATY
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/BEATY
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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