811
FXUS61 KCTP 230743
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DECREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
* SLIGHT DECREASE IN FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, ISOLATED
SLICK SPOTS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
* FULL-SAIL CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
* INTRODUCED SOME WORDING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS,
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRINING A GLAZE OF ICE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
2) LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA.
3) NEXT WINDOW OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMES WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BRINING
A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
RECENT KCCX RADAR OUTLINES A SHIELD OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS
OF 07Z/3AM EDT. PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS TRIED TO INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RE-FIRING OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUT SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS; HOWEVER, THIS IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE UNLIKELY. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY, RECENT
MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS OUTLINE EXTREMELY LITTLE TO WORK WITH
TO GET SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MORE STABLE AIR
IN PLACE. GIVEN THIS, HAVE TRENDED BACK THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ELIMINATING ALL MENTIONS BY 5AM
EDT. SURFACE-BASED LIS ALSO HIGHLIGHT A BRIEF WINDOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO
THIS SLIGHTLY GIVES HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS LINE OF THINKING.
KEEPING A WINDOW THIS WIDE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT EVEN BE TO
OPTIMISTIC FOR THOSE WANTING A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT CANNOT
BE ONE HUNDRED PERCENT RULED OUT.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL/RADAR TRENDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY DECREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE PA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, TOO. AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED IN RECENT RAP SOUNDINGS CANNOT
ELIMINATE THIS THREAT ENTIRELY EITHER, THUS WE'RE CONTINUING TO
MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL CONCERNS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. ONE AREA OF CONCERN COULD BE WITH RESPECT TO
WET SURFACES BEGINNING TO FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OBSERVATIONS ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, SO WE'RE LOOKING AT
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS DUE TO WET
SURFACES FREEZING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROADWAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER CONTINUE TO REMAIN LARGELY
ABOVE FREEZING; HOWEVER, NOTICING PORTIONS OF TIOGA, LYCOMING,
AND POTTER COUNTIES STARTING TO TREND CLOSER TO THE FREEZING
MARK WHERE WE MIGHT START SEEING CONCERNS AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. MENTIONS CONTINUE IN THE HWO, AT THIS JUNCTURE AN SPS
AHEAD OF TRAVEL THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE COURSE OF ACTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION (THE
CAUSE FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BRING ISOLATED
SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE), NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS
TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
OPENS THE DOOR FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED
LAKE EFFECT REGIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS SET-UP,
FULL SAIL CHANGES TO NBM POPS MUCH OF MONDAY ARE WARRANTED. AT
THIS TIME, ONSET TIMING BASED ON RECENT HI-RES MODEL/ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE MID-TO-LATE MORNING AS (CURRENT) NORTHERLY
FLOW BEGINS TO GET THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT IT NEEDS TO
PUSH SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF WARREN, MCKEAN, AND POTTER
COUNTIES. THIS WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAURELS IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME;
HOWEVER, LESS CONFIDENT ON UPSLOPE SHOWERS DOWN THAT WAY.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN LATER
THIS MORNING, EXPECT THESE TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY FOR SELECT AREAS NORTH OF I-80. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE CLASSIC STREAMERS AS OPPOSED TO
THE CELLULAR NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS LAST WEEK SO HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION MENTIONS THE FURTHER NORTH/WEST
YOU GO IN THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT NAM MODEL GUIDANCE OUTLINES
POTENTIAL FOR THESE SHOWERS TO EXTEND FURTHER DOWN AND SUGGEST
AS FAR SOUTH AS AOO/RVL MIGHT BE IN PLAY, BUT THIS IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO BE REFINED
CLOSER TO THE TIME. RECENT SNSQ PARAMETER FROM THE NAM/GFS
OUTLINES SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITHIN THESE LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS AND
THESE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
THIS ALSO ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL WITH RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING A THIN AXIS OF SBCAPE, HIGHEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE US-6 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN PA. A BRIEF WINDOW DOES EXITS;
HOWEVER, WHERE I-80 COULD BE IN PLAY GENERALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FURTHER TIMING AND INTENSITY REFINEMENT
WILL LIKELY COME IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL/RADAR TRENDS, BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING GIVEN THE
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SNSQ PARAMETER OVER PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BAND OF DRENCHING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AIRFIELDS INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF
TSRA IMPACTS AT KMDT/KLNS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED
IFR/LIFR IS AT KBFD ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
RAIN WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS
COLDER NNW FLOW RAMPS UP FROM 310-340 DEGREES. SFC WIND GUSTS
25-35KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DON'T THINK THE MODELS ARE
BULLISH ENOUGH ON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PRELIM -SHSN AT KBFD AND KJST. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVER CPA TUESDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...LIGHT RAIN MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER.
THU NIGHT-AM FRIDAY...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CLIMATE
FOR MARCH 22ND, HARRISBURG TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH (80) AND
ALTOONA SET A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH (83). THE PREVIOUS RECORD
HIGHS WERE 80 (1938) AND 81 (1966).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...BEATY
DISCUSSION...BEATY
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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