434
FXUS61 KCTP 231809
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR UPDATES TO POPS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
2) NEXT WINDOW FOR STEADY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS AND LAURELS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE CLASSIC
STREAMERS AS OPPOSED TO THE CELLULAR NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS
LAST WEEK SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH/WEST. RECENT SNSQ PARAMETER FROM THE NAM/GFS OUTLINES SOME
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MORE
CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. THIS ALSO ALIGNS
FAIRLY WELL WITH RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A THIN
AXIS OF SBCAPE, HIGHEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US-6
CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT WINDOW FOR STEADY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPC D4 15% OUTLOOK STRETCHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND, AND THE
WPC ERO FOR THE SAME DAY DOES PAINT A MRGL RISK INTO WESTERN
PA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH THREATS AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME, LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE THREATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING IF
THE FRONT WERE TO ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING INSTEAD OF
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPS FALL ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES DAY-OVER-DAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RAIN IS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST AIRSPACE AS COLDER NNW FLOW RAMPS
UP FROM 310-360 DEGREES. LIFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD TREND TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY LOW END VFR. SFC WIND GUSTS 25-35KT ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. DON'T THINK THE MODELS ARE BULLISH ENOUGH ON
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PRELIM -SHSN AT KBFD AND KJST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER CPA
TUESDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...LIGHT RAIN MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER.
THU NIGHT-AM FRIDAY...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CLIMATE
FOR MARCH 22ND, HARRISBURG TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH (80) AND
ALTOONA SET A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH (83). THE PREVIOUS RECORD
HIGHS WERE 80 (1938) AND 81 (1966).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT/BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT/BEATY
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/BEATY
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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