798
FXUS61 KCTP 231834
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR UPDATES TO POPS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
2) NEXT WINDOW FOR STEADY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA.
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH A WEAK
MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS AND LAURELS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE CLASSIC
STREAMERS AS OPPOSED TO THE CELLULAR NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS
LAST WEEK SO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH/WEST. RECENT SNSQ PARAMETER FROM THE NAM/GFS OUTLINES SOME
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MORE
CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. THIS ALSO ALIGNS
FAIRLY WELL WITH RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A THIN
AXIS OF SBCAPE, HIGHEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US-6
CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT WINDOW FOR STEADY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPC D4 15% OUTLOOK STRETCHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND, AND THE
WPC ERO FOR THE SAME DAY DOES PAINT A MRGL RISK INTO WESTERN
PA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN INCREASE IN BOTH THREATS AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME, LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE THREATS POTENTIALLY INCREASING IF
THE FRONT WERE TO ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING INSTEAD OF
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPS FALL ROUGHLY 20 DEGREES DAY-OVER-DAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW TO ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT MDT AND LNS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY, BUT RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE THAT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO MVFR FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST, WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...LIGHT RAIN MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER.
THU NIGHT-AM FRIDAY...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SAT...VFR.
CLIMATE
FOR MARCH 22ND, HARRISBURG TIED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH (80) AND
ALTOONA SET A NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH (83). THE PREVIOUS RECORD
HIGHS WERE 80 (1938) AND 81 (1966).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT/BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT/BEATY
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/BEATY
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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