497
FXUS61 KCTP 241038
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LOWERED DEWPOINTS & MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLE WARMUP INTO THURSDAY PRECEDES RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHILLY COOLDOWN FOR THE LAST
WEEKEND OF MARCH
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLE WARMUP INTO THURSDAY PRECEDES RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHILLY COOLDOWN INTO
THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE CUT DEWPOINTS
(AND COMPUTED MINRH IN-KIND) AS SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW STEEP
0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR ATOP WEAK INVERSION.
THE SPRING FIRE WEATHER/PRESCRIBED BURN SEASON IS RAMPING UP
ACROSS CPA.
MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR LATE MARCH BY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURGE OF WARMTH ARRIVES
THURSDAY: FCST MAX TEMPS +10-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE WITH POTENTIALLY MORE ROOM TO THE UPSIDE. DAILY RECORD
HIGHS SEEM OUT OF REACH, BUT COULD GET CLOSE WITHIN A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). THE LATE MARCH TEMPERATURE
ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES TO END THE WEEK WITH A GUSTY NNW WIND
HELPING TO DELIVER A 24HR MAXT CHANGE OF -10 TO -25 DEGREES
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RATHER CHILLY COOL DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO
START THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO FLASH BETWEEN 00-12Z
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CPA.
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM RISKS ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED TO THE
WEST OF PA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE D3 MRGL
SWO DOES CLIP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LATE NIGHT THREAT COULD EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN
PA; BUT ODDS ARE THAT INCREASING STABILITY WITH EASTERN EXTENT
GREATLY REDUCES THE SEVERE RISK TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW STREAMERS OF LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE FLOW, STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS (KBFD), LAUREL HIGHLANDS (KJST) AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KIPT, KMDT AND KLNS) THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS BEFORE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD VFR WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVER SPREAD THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CLOUD BASES INITIALLY AROUND 10-12 KFT AGL WILL
LOWER TO 7-8 KFT AGL BY DUSK.
OUTLOOK...
WED...A THICK BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK (GENERALLY BASED
BETWEEN 7000-8000 FT AGL) WILL BLANKET THE REGION. A FEW BRIEF,
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.
THU-FRIDAY...SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SAT...VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 26TH:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1921
WILLIAMSPORT 78 IN 1939
ALTOONA 79 IN 1998
BRADFORD 73 IN 2007
STATE COLLEGE 76 IN 1949
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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