844
FXUS61 KCTP 241851
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
251 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED DISCUSSION ABOUT POTENTIAL RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ON
SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLE WARMUP INTO THURSDAY PRECEDES RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHILLY COOLDOWN FOR THE LAST
WEEKEND OF MARCH
2) DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF
WILDFIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLE WARMUP INTO THURSDAY PRECEDES RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CHILLY COOLDOWN INTO
THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA IS DELIVERING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MARCH BY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURGE OF WARMTH ARRIVES THURSDAY: FCST MAX
TEMPS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH POTENTIALLY MORE ROOM TO
THE UPSIDE IF SKIES TREND SUNNIER. DAILY RECORD HIGHS SEEM OUT
OF REACH, BUT COULD GET CLOSE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, A GUSTY NNW WIND WILL HELP TO DELIVER A 24HR MAXT
CHANGE OF -10 TO -25 DEGREES FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A RATHER CHILLY
COOL DOWN BELOW CLIMO TO START THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO FLASH BETWEEN 00-12Z
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA.
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM RISKS ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED TO THE
WEST OF PA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE D3 MRGL
SWO DOES CLIP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LATE NIGHT THREAT COULD EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN
PA; BUT ODDS ARE THAT INCREASING STABILITY WITH EASTERN EXTENT
GREATLY REDUCES THE SEVERE RISK TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT
IN A RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND THEN THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR OVER THE
COURSE OF THAT 24 HOURS PERIOD. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS
ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH TO THE
LOW TEENS IN THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S, THIS WILL YIELD MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S PCT
ACROSS CENTRAL PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME, FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE
LAURELS AND NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES. IF THAT'S THE CASE THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD WILL BE LESS THAN WARNING
CRITERIA, BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE THREAT AND
MONITOR FUEL MOISTURE ASSESSMENTS FROM OUR FORESTRY PARTNERS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR WILL BE
PREVAILING FOR ALL SITES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90%) FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD BASES INITIALLY
AROUND 10-12 KFT AGL WILL LOWER TO 7-8 KFT AGL BY DUSK. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ONCE
THE CLOUD DECK BUILDS IN, BUT CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
STAY GREATER THAN 5 KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
WED...A THICK BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK (GENERALLY BASED
BETWEEN 7000-8000 FT AGL) WILL BLANKET THE REGION. A FEW BRIEF,
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.
THU-FRIDAY...SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 26TH:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1921
WILLIAMSPORT 78 IN 1939
ALTOONA 79 IN 1998
BRADFORD 73 IN 2007
STATE COLLEGE 76 IN 1949
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BOWEN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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