571
FXUS61 KCTP 250719
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LEANING WARMER WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLE WARMUP INTO THURSDAY PRECEDES RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLE WARMUP INTO THURSDAY PRECEDES RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY COOL DOWN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY/TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND RAIN-
FREE MOST OF THE TIME. THE ODDS OF A PASSING RAIN SHOWER DO
INCREASE ON THE MARGIN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK
TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MARCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SURGE OF WARMTH ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH FCST
MAX TEMPS +10-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE; WE LEANED
A BIT WARMER FOR THIS CYCLE AS ANY BREAKS OF SUN COULD PROPEL
HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALLEGHENIES AND
MID-LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. DAILY RECORD HIGHS SEEM OUT OF REACH,
BUT COULD GET CLOSE AT A FEW SITES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO FLASH BETWEEN 00-12Z
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA.
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM RISKS ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE D2 MRGL RISK SWO AND ERO
DOES CLIP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN INDIANA/OHIO COULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO
WESTERN PA; BUT ODDS ARE THAT INCREASING STABILITY WITH EASTERN
EXTENT AND FAST STORM MOTIONS GREATLY REDUCES THE SEVERE/FLOOD
RISK TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A GUSTY NNW WIND WILL HELP TO DELIVER A
24HR MAXT CHANGE OF -15 TO -30 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE EARLY
SPRING TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER REACHES A NADIR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BOTTOMING IN THE TEENS/20S FOLLOWED
BY A RATHER CHILLY/BELOW CLIMO START THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED TO
START THE MONTH OF APRIL.
FIRE WEATHER: COORDINATION WITH FIRE PARTNERS ON PROJECTED
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL FCST DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE 35-55F RANGE SUGGESTS RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD WILL
BE TEMPERED OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
PARTICULARLY WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD
FROPA EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE NAM SHOWS 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF
6-9MB BETWEEN 09-15Z.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD UNDER
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
A FEW BRIEF AND GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF RAIN IN THE TAFS.
IF ANY SHOWERS DO HAPPEN TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AN AIRFIELD,
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (BUT
LIKELY STILL AOA 6000 FEET).
INTRODUCED LLWS AT ALL AIRFIELDS BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING,
AROUND AND AFTER 00Z THU. THE LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRIDAY...SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI PM...BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN EXITING THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 26TH:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1921
WILLIAMSPORT 78 IN 1939
ALTOONA 79 IN 1998
BRADFORD 73 IN 2007
STATE COLLEGE 76 IN 1949
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page