342
FXUS61 KCTP 260057
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
857 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LOWERED DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS N/W PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLE WARMUP ON THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY COOL DOWN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLE WARMUP ON THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY COOL
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY/TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND RAIN-
FREE MOST OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF A PASSING RAIN
SHOWER DO MARGINALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS +10-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE. A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE COULD PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED MAXES. DAILY RECORD HIGHS SEEM OUT OF
REACH, BUT COULD GET CLOSE AT A FEW SITES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
THE BEST SIGNAL FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE 00-12Z FRIDAY, AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA. HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORM RISKS ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE D2 MRGL RISK SWO AND ERO DOES CLIP THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TRAINING SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO WESTERN PA. HOWEVER, ODDS
ARE THAT INCREASING STABILITY WITH EASTERN EXTENT AND FAST STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE/FLOOD RISK TO THE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A GUSTY N/NW WIND WILL HELP TO DELIVER A
24HR MAXT CHANGE OF -15 TO -30 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE EARLY
SPRING TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER REACHES A NADIR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING BOTTOMING IN THE TEENS/20S. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RATHER CHILLY START THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH.
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, WITH MODERATING TEMPS
EXPECTED TO START THE MONTH OF APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY HIGH (~90-100%) CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 26/12Z. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE AT BFD WHERE RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE JUST
AHEAD OF 12Z; HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES SQUARELY AFTER 12Z. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEAR-TERM WILL BE LLWS CONCERNS WITH A 40-45KT 850MB LLJ
STATIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS FAR SE PA (MDT/LNS); HOWEVER, MENTIONS ARE STILL RETAINED
HERE DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 26/12Z, MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO ENTER NW PA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH MODERATE
(~50-60%) CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST JUST NORTH OF
THE PA-NY BORDER CLOSER TO 00Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LARGELY BE STATIONED ALONG THE FRONT; HOWEVER, RECENT HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE OUTLINED THESE IN PROB30S AT BFD GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE. FURTHER SOUTH, SHRA MENTIONS SEEM MOST POSSIBLE AT
IPT/JST PRIOR TO 00Z WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UNV/AOO WILL
HUG FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. MENTIONS FURTHER SE
(MDT/LNS) WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE;
HOWEVER, CHANCES LARGELY APPEAR TO BE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...-SHRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT -SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 26TH:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1921
WILLIAMSPORT 78 IN 1939
ALTOONA 79 IN 1998
BRADFORD 73 IN 2007
STATE COLLEGE 76 IN 1949
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...EVANEGO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
AVIATION...BEATY
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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