779
FXUS61 KCTP 260756
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LEANING WARMER WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
* SPC SEVERE T-STORM AND WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOKS EXPANDED
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLE WARMUP TODAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY/RAW COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLE WARMUP TODAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY/RAW COOL DOWN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD START TODAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WE STILL EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS IN MOST PLACES TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
(THROUGH 18Z) ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL
SUPPORT A VERY WARM DAY RELATIVE TO LATE MARCH CLIMO - WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE 65-75F RANGE OR +15-25 DEGREES ABOVE THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE/WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR SO OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SPC HAS
EXTENDED THE MRGL AND SLGT RISK CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA, HOWEVER CALIBRATED SEVERE
STORM PROBS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE GREATEST HAIL/WIND/TOR RISK IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE INSYNC.
INFLUX OF 1-1.5" PWATS BRINGS THE PROSPECT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MORE INTO PLAY AND FCST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED A
BIT PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST PA. IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH FAST
MOVEMENT AND AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CAN BE OFFSET BY TRAINING
STORMS AND OROGRAPHICS, BUT LIKE THE SEVERE T-STORM RISK, THE
PROBABILITY OF RUNOFF ISSUES HAS INCREASED ON THE MARGIN AND
WPC WILL BE MONITORING FOR A TARGETED UPGRADE IN THE ERO. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE 1.50-2.00 INCHES IN THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A RAW NORTHERLY WIND WILL DELIVER A
24HR MAXT CHANGE OF -20 TO -30 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. THE EARLY
SPRING TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER REACHES A NADIR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING BOTTOMING IN THE TEENS/20S. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A RATHER CHILLY START THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT LAST LONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS/WARMING TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AIRFIELDS IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY HIGH (~90-100%) CONFIDENCE
THROUGH 26/12Z. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE AT BFD WHERE RECENT HREF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE JUST
AHEAD OF 12Z; HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES SQUARELY AFTER 12Z. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEAR-TERM WILL BE LLWS CONCERNS WITH A 40-45KT 850MB LLJ
STATIONED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS FAR SE PA (MDT/LNS); HOWEVER, MENTIONS ARE STILL RETAINED
HERE DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 26/12Z, MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO ENTER NW PA ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH MODERATE
(~50-60%) CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STATIONED EAST-TO-WEST JUST NORTH OF
THE PA-NY BORDER CLOSER TO 00Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LARGELY BE STATIONED ALONG THE FRONT; HOWEVER, RECENT HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE OUTLINED THESE IN PROB30S AT BFD GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE. FURTHER SOUTH, SHRA MENTIONS SEEM MOST POSSIBLE AT
IPT/JST PRIOR TO 00Z WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UNV/AOO WILL
HUG FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. MENTIONS FURTHER SE
(MDT/LNS) WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE;
HOWEVER, CHANCES LARGELY APPEAR TO BE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...-SHRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT -SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 26TH:
HARRISBURG 80 IN 1921
WILLIAMSPORT 78 IN 1939
ALTOONA 79 IN 1998
BRADFORD 73 IN 2007
STATE COLLEGE 76 IN 1949
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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