449
FXUS61 KCTP 271736
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
136 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED WINDS, INCREASED POPS (NW ONLY), AND DECREASED
DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONSIDERABLE COOL DOWN INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MARCH
FOLLOWED BY RESURGENCE OF SPRING WARMTH TO KICK OFF APRIL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONSIDERABLE COOL DOWN INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF
MARCH FOLLOWED BY RESURGENCE OF SPRING WARMTH TO KICK OFF APRIL
A RAW NORTHERLY WIND/LOW LEVEL CAA WILL DIRECT NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR INTO CPA TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 35-55F RANGE
(NORTH TO SOUTH) OR 25-35 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOW LARGELY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND
CLOUDS - THOUGH STUBBORN SO FAR - SHOULD EVER SO SLOWLY ERODE
AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
THANKS TO SEASONABLY STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD
FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY COULD TRIGGER SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON THE
WHOLE WILL BE CHILLY AND UNEVENTFUL TO START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
MARCH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND HOW
MANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL EMERGE ON SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY
AIRMASS OVERHEAD. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BUT PARTICULARLY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD JUST AS EASILY MIX DOWN AND LIMIT CLOUD
COVER/SNOW POTENTIAL. MORE CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS UP
AND LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ON THE OTHER
HAND, MORE CLEARING WOULD MEAN DEEPER MIXING, GUSTIER WINDS,
LOWER DEWPOINTS, AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THE LATTER SCENARIO
COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON SATURDAY
WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. THE BUREAU OF FORESTRY
INDICATES THAT FUELS (LEAVES/GRASSES/ETC.) ARE MOIST ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT PLEASE USE
CAUTION IF PLANNING TO BURN ANY DEBRIS THIS WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, ALL MODEL SIGNALS POINT TO A
RESURGENCE OF SPRING WARMTH TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH AND KICK OFF
APRIL. AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERN US TO THE EAST COAST AND BRING A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND 70S FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS
REPLACED BY A DEEP TROUGH, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE
AND A FAIRLY ACTIVE/RAINY/STORMY PATTERN IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. WARM & WET LOOKS LIKE THE
THEME FOR CENTRAL PA FOR THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF APRIL. SPRING
GROWTH SHOULD COMMENCE WITH HASTE OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
MVFR TO LOW END VFR VSBYS WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER
BY 14Z TODAY.
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO PA WILL LEAD TO
LOWERING CIGS (INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE) THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TO MIX OUT THE CLOUD DECK TO SCT STRATO
CU CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 20S (MPH) BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT -SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSS, MAINLY W.
TUE...NMRS SHRA. TSRA POSS W.
CLIMATE
A DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.58 INCHES WAS SET AT ALTOONA
YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.57 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1978.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...TEARE
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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