081
FXUS61 KCTP 281839
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPS REBOUND NICELY SUN WHILE DEWPOINTS BARELY KEEP UP.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH A BIG JUMP FOR TUE.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK, STALLS OVER
VA/NC. HIGH POPS FOR DAYS 4-7.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPS REBOUND NICELY SUN WHILE DEWPOINTS BARELY
KEEP UP. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH A BIG JUMP FOR TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WIND DIES DOWN
TONIGHT, AND TURNS SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY, HELPING PUSH MAX TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY (12-20F BIGGEST GAINS IN THE NW) VS SAT. THE DRYING
WIND AND ALREADY-LOW DEWPOINTS WILL NUDGE US TO CONSIDER FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, FINE FUELS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SPS AND CERTAINLY NOT A RFW AT THIS TIME.
IF THE FUEL MOISTURES DO DROP A BIT MORE, WE MAY WANT TO ISSUE
AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THOSE CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY.
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE ON
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS WILL JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN ON TUES (10-15F OVER MON)
WITH A SUSTAINED SWRLY WIND BRINING IN THE HEAT. MAXES COULD
NEAR 80F IN THE S AND 70F IN THE NRN MTNS.
-------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK,
STALLS OVER VA/NC. HIGH POPS FOR DAYS 4-7.
SFC LOW FORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND PASSES TO OUR N TUES NIGHT,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW INTO PA ON WED. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS OVER VA/NC AND TURNS BACK AROUND AS A WARM FRONT.
THE ENSUING PATTERN OF A DEEP FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
DRIFT SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU
CLOUDS (POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO UPPER END MVFR RANGE AT KBFD AND
KJST WITH A FEW FLURRIES).
ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
CURRENT 12Z TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LAST MUCH OF TODAY.
SKIES TREND TOWARD SKC BY 21Z SAT WITH WIND DECREASING TONIGHT
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
MON...SCT -SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSS, MAINLY W.
TUE...CHANCE -SHRA, SLIGHT CHC TSRA WEST.
WED...NMRS SHRA WITH TSRA POSS. COLD FROPA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
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