220
FXUS61 KCTP 282321
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPS REBOUND NICELY SUN WHILE DEWPOINTS BARELY KEEP UP.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH A BIG JUMP FOR TUE.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK, STALLS OVER
VA/NC. HIGH POPS FOR DAYS 4-7.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPS REBOUND NICELY SUN WHILE DEWPOINTS BARELY
KEEP UP. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH A BIG JUMP FOR TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WIND DIES DOWN
TONIGHT, AND TURNS SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY, HELPING PUSH MAX TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY (12-20F BIGGEST GAINS IN THE NW) VS SAT. THE DRYING
WIND AND ALREADY-LOW DEWPOINTS WILL NUDGE US TO CONSIDER FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, FINE FUELS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SPS AND CERTAINLY NOT A RFW AT THIS TIME.
IF THE FUEL MOISTURES DO DROP A BIT MORE, WE MAY WANT TO ISSUE
AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THOSE CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY.
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE ON
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS WILL JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN ON TUES (10-15F OVER MON)
WITH A SUSTAINED SWRLY WIND BRINING IN THE HEAT. MAXES COULD
NEAR 80F IN THE S AND 70F IN THE NRN MTNS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK,
STALLS OVER VA/NC. HIGH POPS FOR DAYS 4-7.
SFC LOW FORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND PASSES TO OUR N TUES NIGHT,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW INTO PA ON WED. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS OVER VA/NC AND TURNS BACK AROUND AS A WARM FRONT.
THE ENSUING PATTERN OF A DEEP FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS 15-20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MON...SCT -SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSS, MAINLY W.
TUE...CHANCE -SHRA, SLIGHT CHC TSRA WEST.
WED...NMRS SHRA WITH TSRA POSS. COLD FROPA.
THU...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA, WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
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