705
FXUS61 KCTP 291158
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
758 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRIMMED DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEG F FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON WINDS A COUPLE MPH.
* OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPS REBOUND NICELY TODAY WHILE DEWPOINTS BARELY KEEP UP.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH A BIG JUMP FOR TUE.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK, STALLS OVER
VA/NC. HIGH POPS FOR DAYS 4-7.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPS REBOUND NICELY TODAY WHILE DEWPOINTS
BARELY KEEP UP. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH A BIG JUMP FOR TUE.
A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY/SWRLY AND INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S (MPH).
HIGH TEMPS CHANGES FROM SATURDAY WILL BE 12-20F WITH THE BIGGEST
GAINS IN THE NW MTNS. THE WIND, DESCENDING THE ALLEGHENIES, WILL
COMBINE WITH VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL, TO HELP
TAP THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
FINE FUELS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE/DRY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SPS
AND CERTAINLY NOT A RFW AT THIS TIME. WFOS TO OUR SOUTH (WHERE
MUCH LIGHTER RAIN FELL RECENTLY) OPTED TO POST A SPS FOR THE
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD.
POPS ARE ZEROED OUT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH
AN INITIAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, THEN LOWER-
END MVFR CLOUDS OR UPPER IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE ON
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPS WILL JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN ON TUES (10-15F OVER MON)
WITH A SUSTAINED SWRLY WIND BRINING IN THE HEAT. MAXES COULD
NEAR 80F IN THE S AND 70F IN THE NRN MTNS.
-------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK,
STALLS OVER VA/NC. HIGH POPS FOR DAYS 4-7.
SFC LOW FORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND PASSES TO OUR N TUES NIGHT,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW INTO PA ON WED. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS OVER VA/NC AND TURNS BACK AROUND AS A WARM FRONT.
THE ENSUING PATTERN OF A DEEP FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS HIGH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. LOTS OF
HIGH/MID CLOUDS, THOUGH. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KT IN
THE SE, AND LESS ELSEWHERE. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT,
AGAIN HIGHEST IN THE SE. THEN, A SWRLY LLJET OF 35-45KT BUILDS.
NOT ONLY WILL IT CREATE LLWS ON MON (MAINLY W), BUT IT WILL
BRING IN MOISTURE FOR THE LOWEST 6KFT OF THE ATMOS. THE MOISTURE
WILL PILE UP AGAINST THE LAURELS AND ALLEGHENIES (JST/BFD).
IFR CIGS ARE POSS (40%) AT BFD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DIP THAT LOW, IF THEY DO. JUST EXPECT A
LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AT BFD AND PERHAPS
JST. AN ISOLD PATCH OR TWO OF --RA IS POSSIBLE W OUT OF THE
THICK CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE -SHRA, SLIGHT CHC TSRA WEST.
WED...NMRS SHRA WITH TSRA POSS. COLD FROPA.
THU...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA, WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE NORTH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page