191
FXUS61 KCTP 300251
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD WEEK AHEAD AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO APRIL WITH PASSING
SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN LEADING UP TO EASTER SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD WEEK AHEAD AS THE CALENDER FLIPS TO APRIL
WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN LEADING UP TO EASTER
SUNDAY
EVOLVING WAA PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN EARLY THIS WEEK. HREF MEAN SUGGESTS SOME PASSING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN
MTNS, WITH A BETTER RAIN/QPF SIGNAL EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY. FORCING APPEARS RATHER NEBULOUS FOR TOMORROW
ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. COLD FRONT
TRAILING QUICK MOVING SFC LOW TRACKING FROM WI TO ME ON TUESDAY
SUPPORTS BEST ODDS FOR RAIN LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHERN PA WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF SPC D3 MRGL
RISK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AND
PIVOTS OVER CPA ON WED AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SETS UP CAD
SIGNATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. TRAILING FRONT TIED TO THIS LOW ALSO WAVERS OVER
PA LATE IN THE WEEK AND LINKS UP WITH A 3RD UPPER MIDWEST SFC
LOW TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTER WEEKEND.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL 2026
LOOKS BE ON THE MILD SIDE OF CLIMO WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX
RAINFALL/QPF FOOTPRINT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST PA MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
>1" OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. A SWRLY LLJET OF
35-45KT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. NOT ONLY WILL IT CREATE LLWS
ON MON (MAINLY W), BUT IT WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FOR THE LOWEST
6KFT OF THE ATMOS. THE MOISTURE WILL PILE UP AGAINST THE LAURELS
AND ALLEGHENIES (JST/BFD). IFR CIGS ARE POSS (40%) AT BFD
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DIP THAT
LOW, IF THEY DO. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD (90%) STAY WELL ABOVE
IFR CIGS, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE (40-60 PCT CHC) AT JST,
AOO, AND UNV. AN ISOLD PATCH OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF THE THICKER CLOUDS IN THE W AND PERHAPS AT MDT/LNS, TOO,
IN THE MORNING AS A UPPER WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE -SHRA, SLIGHT CHC (20%) -TSRA, MAINLY WEST.
WED...NMRS SHRA WITH TSRA POSS (40%). CFROPA LATE DAY OR EARLY
NIGHT.
THU-FRI...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA. MVFR LIKELY (70%).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/COLBERT
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