431
FXUS61 KCTP 301754
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
154 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
AND AS WE HEAD INTO APRIL WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN LEADING UP TO EASTER SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
AND AS WE HEAD INTO APRIL WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN LEADING UP TO EASTER SUNDAY
EVOLVING WAA PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY THIS
WEEK. MAX/MIN DEPARTURES WILL PEAK TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AT
AROUND +20 DEG F AND +30 DEG F RESPECTIVELY JUST AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF LAYERED CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL DURATION AND AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THE BETTER RAIN/QPF SIGNAL DEVELOPS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY, IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE GREATEST CHC FOR
RAIN THIS WEEK, ESP OVER NORTHERN PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SPC'S D2 MRGL RISK
AREA.
THE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.,
GLAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WON'T ALLOW FOR MUCH SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF THIS AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY AND PIVOTS OVER CPA ON WED AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CAD SIGNATURE FOR THURSDAY AS A STRONG,
1040+ MB SFC HIGH SLIDES OVER SE QUEBEC/MAINE.
ANOTHER SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
ITS SWD TRAILING CFRONT TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO WAVER OVER THE REGION AND LINK
UP WITH A 3RD UPPER MIDWEST SFC LOW TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTER WEEKEND.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT MARCH AND BEGIN APRIL 2026
LOOKS BE WELL ON THE MILD SIDE OF CLIMO WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
MAX RAINFALL/QPF FOOTPRINT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST PA MOST LIKELY TO
PICK UP >1" OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIND GUSTING FROM THE SW THIS AFTN WILL LIGHTEN UP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW MID-LEVEL RETURNS ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE NRN
TIER (BFD) ARE HARDLY REACHING THE GROUND, BUT WE HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH FOR THE FIRST 2 HRS OF THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD
SHRA BECOME MORE POSSIBLE (40%) AT BFD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
AND HIGHEST (80%) LATER TONIGHT. THE CIGS SHOULD (70%) DIP TO
IFR BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT RISE AGAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
OTHERWISE, CIGS REMAIN VFR OR BARELY DIP TO FL025-030 AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS TONIGHT.
LLWS RETURNS THIS EVENING (AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
ALL AIRFIELDS) AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES
AND ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHRA AND TSRA BECOME NMRS AROUND BFD TUE AFTN, AND SCT FOR
UNV/IPT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA TUES EVENING AND THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE LIKELY FOR BFD AND POSS (30%) FOR JST-UNV-IPT.
SOME OF THE TSRA COULD BRING HIGH WINDS (G40KT+) FOR BRIEF
MOMENTS. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHRA AND VERY LITTLE CHC FOR TSRA
ARE IN STORE FOR AOO-MDT-LNS UNTIL WED. THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WED, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VISBY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA, MAINLY PM. MVFR LIKELY (70%).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO
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