985
FXUS61 KCTP 301855
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*DECREASED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
*THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY HAS INCREASED
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
*LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INCREASES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
TONIGHT WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH
SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN PA. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NEW
YORK BORDER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE UP TO HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IF STORMS DO FORM, THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SOME DESTABILIZATION, AND THE HREF SHOWS SURFACE-
BASED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO
45 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW DECENT CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH 0-3 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, BUT A CONDITIONAL HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT IS NOT OFF THE TABLE. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
RISK TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA.
A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION IN THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, BUT WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY, KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80, BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT LIKELY STAY STUCK IN THE 50S. THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY DELAY THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE NBM HAS A 20 TO 25 DEGREE SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION, SO IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
50TH PERCENTILE, ENDS UP BEING TOO WARM. IF THIS DOES END UP
BEING THE CASE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIND GUSTING FROM THE SW THIS AFTN WILL LIGHTEN UP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW MID-LEVEL RETURNS ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE NRN
TIER (BFD) ARE HARDLY REACHING THE GROUND, BUT WE HAVE MENTIONED
VCSH FOR THE FIRST 2 HRS OF THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD
SHRA BECOME MORE POSSIBLE (40%) AT BFD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
AND HIGHEST (80%) LATER TONIGHT. THE CIGS SHOULD (70%) DIP TO
IFR BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT RISE AGAIN FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
OTHERWISE, CIGS REMAIN VFR OR BARELY DIP TO FL025-030 AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS TONIGHT.
LLWS RETURNS THIS EVENING (AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
ALL AIRFIELDS) AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER VERTICAL MIXING SUBSIDES
AND ANOTHER SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHRA AND TSRA BECOME NMRS AROUND BFD TUE AFTN, AND SCT FOR
UNV/IPT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA TUES EVENING AND THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE LIKELY FOR BFD AND POSS (30%) FOR JST-UNV-IPT.
SOME OF THE TSRA COULD BRING HIGH WINDS (G40KT+) FOR BRIEF
MOMENTS. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHRA AND VERY LITTLE CHC FOR TSRA
ARE IN STORE FOR AOO-MDT-LNS UNTIL WED. THE FRONT DROPS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WED, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VISBY.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA, MAINLY PM. MVFR LIKELY (70%).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...DANGELO
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