065
FXUS61 KCTP 310125
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*DECREASED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
*THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY HAS INCREASED
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA.
*LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INCREASES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES
TONIGHT WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH
SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN PA. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NEW
YORK BORDER, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE UP TO HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IF STORMS DO FORM, THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SOME DESTABILIZATION, AND THE HREF SHOWS SURFACE-
BASED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO
45 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW DECENT CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH 0-3 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, BUT A CONDITIONAL HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT IS NOT OFF THE TABLE. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT
RISK TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA.
A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION IN THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, BUT WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY, KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
INCREASES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80, BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT LIKELY STAY STUCK IN THE 50S. THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY DELAY THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE NBM HAS A 20 TO 25 DEGREE SPREAD
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION, SO IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS CLOSER TO
50TH PERCENTILE, ENDS UP BEING TOO WARM. IF THIS DOES END UP
BEING THE CASE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PA THIS
EVENING AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MILD, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) AND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (KJST). MOREOVER,
LLWS IS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE THROUGH 12Z-16Z DUE TO A 40-50 KT
LLJ DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LLWS CHANCES DIMINISH BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH
10-15 KT WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER, PROXIMITY TO A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SIGNALS HIGH
CONFIDENCE (60-80%) IN MVFR CEILINGS AT KBFD AFTER 03Z, WITH A
WINDOW FOR IFR (30-50%) BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z, ASSOCIATED WITH A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME (AS SHOWN BY CAMS
SUCH AS THE HRRR, WRFS, AND 3KM NAM). MOREOVER, WITH MUCAPE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 300 J/KG OVERNIGHT, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES, A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE LATEST LAMP BRINGING 30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT KJST FROM 10Z TO 16Z. WHILE THE HREF SUGGESTS MVFR
CEILINGS MIGHT LINGER AFTER 16Z, IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS WOULD
RAISE CEILINGS TO VFR THROUGH MIXING, AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR.
ELSEWHERE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
LOWER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
POSITIONED FARTHER NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, MEAN SBCAPE VALUES ON
THE HREF RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
SUGGESTS AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HREF HAS 1-HR POPS FAIRLY LOW (10-20%) FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, OWING TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, WITH HIGHER POPS
(30%+) PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NUMEROUS SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OSCILLATES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...TEARE
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