920
FXUS61 KCTP 310824
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
424 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*MINIMAL CHANGES SINCE THE LAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
AS OF 0330 AM TUE, CENTRAL PA IS MAINLY DRY WITH EARLIER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS MOVING OUT OF SULLIVAN CO. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FIRST IS A DECAYING MCV ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, IT LOST ALL OF ITS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER PRECIP. IF IT MAINTAINS STEADY STATE
MOTION AND INTENSITY, IT WILL ARRIVE IN WARREN COUNTY BY 0630 AM
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN. THE SECOND CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. THIS CLUSTER
IS MUCH MORE ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE, BUT IT IS TRACKING TO THE EAST
AND WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE PA NY BORDER FOR THE TIME
BEING. HOWEVER IF THIS CLUSTER DEVELOPS MORE OF A FLANKING LINE
OF CONVECTION ON ITS SOUTH SIDE, IT WOULD PROBABLY MOVE INTO OUR
NW ZONES BETWEEN 0730 AND 0800 AM. A THIRD CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF CHICAGO. THIS CONVECTION IS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING LATELY, BUT ITS REMNANTS WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE OVER OUR NW ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION AND JUST 200-500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SO CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES IN FROM UPSTREAM.
HOWEVER THERE IS A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR
THE EVENING HOURS (5-11 PM). THE HREF SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S-70S, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AND SURFACE-
BASED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW DECENT CURVATURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS, WITH 0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, BUT A
CONDITIONAL HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS NOT OFF THE TABLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT
RISK OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER IN THE NW.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
RIDE ALONG IT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT, THESE
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MAIN CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO
A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR ANY TRAINING HEAVY PRECIP. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OF OUR COUNTIES IN A FLOOD
WATCH (THERE IS ONE UP FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE).
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WITH THE FRONT DIVIDING THE AREA, HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN TIER TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SPC DRAWS A MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER
TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY.
THERE IS FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY. FOR HARRISBURG AS AN EXAMPLE, THE INTERQUARTILE
RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPS FROM THE NBM IS 59-74F. SOME GUIDANCE (NAM)
EVEN KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 40S. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY TRACES
BACK TO LIMITED PREDICTABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH
TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY
FOG ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. THE COOL WEATHER DOES
LOOK TO BE LIMITED JUST TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. WARM WEATHER
STICKS AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER SUNDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THUNDER AT BFD EARLIER, NOW OVER WELLSBORO, SOON TO EXIT OUR
AREA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES. MAIN ISSUE EARLY ON WILL BE LLWS.
AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING, BFD WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, BUT MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS
CAPPED OFF TODAY. THUS DID NOT HIT THE ACTIVITY VERY HARD IN
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT, MAINLY AT BFD.
FOR WEDNESDAY, COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN, SO ONE COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WET WEATHER AT TIMES INTO THE UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PA THIS
EVENING AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MILD, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) AND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT (KJST). MOREOVER,
LLWS IS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE THROUGH 12Z-16Z DUE TO A 40-50 KT
LLJ DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LLWS CHANCES DIMINISH BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH
10-15 KT WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS EXPECTED REGIONWIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES, A COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE LATEST LAMP BRINGING 30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT KJST FROM 10Z TO 16Z. WHILE THE HREF SUGGESTS MVFR
CEILINGS MIGHT LINGER AFTER 16Z, IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS WOULD
RAISE CEILINGS TO VFR THROUGH MIXING, AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR.
ELSEWHERE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
LOWER RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
POSITIONED FARTHER NORTH. WITH THAT SAID, MEAN SBCAPE VALUES ON
THE HREF RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
SUGGESTS AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HREF HAS 1-HR POPS FAIRLY LOW (10-20%) FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, OWING TO A LACK OF
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, WITH HIGHER POPS
(30%+) PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NUMEROUS SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OSCILLATES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...MARTIN/TEARE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page