954
FXUS61 KCTP 311752
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*MINIMAL CHANGES SINCE THE LAST DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
AS OF 0330 AM TUE, CENTRAL PA IS MAINLY DRY WITH EARLIER BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS MOVING OUT OF SULLIVAN CO. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FIRST IS A DECAYING MCV ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, IT LOST ALL OF ITS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER PRECIP. IF IT MAINTAINS STEADY STATE
MOTION AND INTENSITY, IT WILL ARRIVE IN WARREN COUNTY BY 0630 AM
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN. THE SECOND CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. THIS CLUSTER
IS MUCH MORE ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE, BUT IT IS TRACKING TO THE EAST
AND WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE PA NY BORDER FOR THE TIME
BEING. HOWEVER IF THIS CLUSTER DEVELOPS MORE OF A FLANKING LINE
OF CONVECTION ON ITS SOUTH SIDE, IT WOULD PROBABLY MOVE INTO OUR
NW ZONES BETWEEN 0730 AND 0800 AM. A THIRD CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF CHICAGO. THIS CONVECTION IS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING LATELY, BUT ITS REMNANTS WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE OVER OUR NW ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION AND JUST 200-500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SO CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES IN FROM UPSTREAM.
HOWEVER THERE IS A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR
THE EVENING HOURS (5-11 PM). THE HREF SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S-70S, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AND SURFACE-
BASED CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW DECENT CURVATURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS, WITH 0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, BUT A
CONDITIONAL HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT IS NOT OFF THE TABLE
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT
RISK OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER IN THE NW.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
RIDE ALONG IT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT, THESE
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MAIN CONCERN MAY TRANSITION TO
A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR ANY TRAINING HEAVY PRECIP. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME POSSIBLE, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY OF OUR COUNTIES IN A FLOOD
WATCH (THERE IS ONE UP FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE).
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WITH THE FRONT DIVIDING THE AREA, HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHERN TIER TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SPC DRAWS A MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER
TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY.
THERE IS FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY. FOR HARRISBURG AS AN EXAMPLE, THE INTERQUARTILE
RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPS FROM THE NBM IS 59-74F. SOME GUIDANCE (NAM)
EVEN KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 40S. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY TRACES
BACK TO LIMITED PREDICTABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP WITH
TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY
FOG ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. THE COOL WEATHER DOES
LOOK TO BE LIMITED JUST TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED SHOWING TEMPS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. WARM WEATHER
STICKS AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER SUNDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL PA AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST PA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO BFD. THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THESE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIKELY
REACHING MDT AND LNS BY SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS WILL MAKE IT AS THEY WILL BE ENTERING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF AOO AND UNV. CEILINGS LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THESE MOVE IN, FALLING TO IFR AT BFD, JST, AND IPT AFTER 06Z.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT AOO AND UNV, WHILE MDT AND LNS
LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
WIND GUSTS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LLWS AT
MOST TAF SITES AS A 40 TO 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...NUMEROUS SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OSCILLATES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...COLBERT/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...COLBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page