211
FXUS61 KCTP 010817
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
417 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #83 HAS BEEN CANCELLED
KEY MESSAGES
1) BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF
APRIL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL
AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
BY THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S F TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT
AND WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S SHOULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
FOCUSED WITHIN WEST-EAST CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH OF I-80 TO MD
LINE. PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE FIRST BIG TEMPERATURE SWING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS +/- 20 DEGREES IN THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE CWA. CAD
PATTERN BEHIND EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRIVE COOL/MOIST
AIR (HIGHS 50-60F) INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE DOWNSLOPE ALONG AND WEST TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SENDS
TEMPS INTO THE 70-80F RANGE IN WESTERN PA. BIG TEMP SWING #2: A
MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL RETURNS TO CPA INTO
EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY
BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4 (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION). A MORE INTERMITTENT, LIMITED COVERAGE RAINFALL
PATTERN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BIG TEMP SWING #3 ARRIVES EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS CPA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR. A
SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
PRE-FRONTAL DESTABLIZATION. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT (MONDAY
MORNING) WILL BE -15 TO -20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
(SUNDAY MORNING).
THE COOLDOWN LASTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (FIRST FULL WEEK OF
APRIL) WITH MAX TEMPS FCST BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM JUST ADJUSTED THE TAFS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
THINKING IS MUCH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL PA BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO 00Z THU.
CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER AT TIME GOES ON, AS TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY OR COOL.
FOR LATER ON AFTER 00Z THURSDAY, SOME MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF PA INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. WILL LOOK THIS OVER AND ADJUST MORE
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN TIER
AROUND 08Z WEDNESDAY, THEN TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY
00Z THURSDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS
AT KJST DUE TO UPSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND
AT KBFD WHERE COOL/MOIST AIR WILL BE FURTHER ENTRENCHED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO HIGHLIGHTS IFR BEING POSSIBLE
AT KBFD AFTER 09Z (50% CHANCE), PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 11Z AND
14Z WHERE PROBABILITIES RISE TO 60-70% FOR IFR, CORRESPONDING TO
THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. ON THE OTHER HAND, KMDT AND KLNS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW,
STAYING VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, THE LAMP
SUGGESTS AN INCREASING CHANCE (30-40%) FOR MVFR AT THESE
SOUTHERN SITES BY 22Z WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAY PASS
THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH AS THE
FRONT PASSES OVER AIR SITES IN THE REGION, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH THE FOCUS FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KMDT/KLNS)
PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. THE HREF SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG WITHIN THAT AREA, WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTIES
PRECLUDE FURTHER DETAILS IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...NUMEROUS SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OSCILLATES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/TEARE
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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