942
FXUS61 KCTP 011836
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
236 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA.
2) BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF
APRIL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO SOUTHERN PA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CAD
PATTERN BEHIND EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRIVE
COOL/MOIST AIR (HIGHS 50-60F) INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE DOWNSLOPE ALONG AND WEST TO THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT SENDS TEMPS INTO THE 70-80F RANGE IN WESTERN PA. BIG TEMP
SWING #2: A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL RETURNS TO CPA
INTO EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO APPROACH AND
POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION). A MORE INTERMITTENT, LIMITED COVERAGE
RAINFALL PATTERN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BIG TEMP SWING #3 ARRIVES EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS CPA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR.
A SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
PRE-FRONTAL DESTABLIZATION. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT (MONDAY
MORNING) WILL BE -15 TO -20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
(SUNDAY MORNING).
THE COOLDOWN LASTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (FIRST FULL WEEK OF
APRIL) WITH MAX TEMPS FCST BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO ALL AIRFIELDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS - SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE - WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD IS AT MDT AND LNS LATER THIS EVENING, BUT THUNDER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AT JST AND AOO.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND BRING COLD AIR DAMMING/LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE TO MUCH
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT
JST, MDT, AND LNS. MUCH OF REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE IFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS, AS THE FRONT STALLS NEARBY AND CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY AND
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY AT THAT POINT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...NUMEROUS SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OSCILLATES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W, VFR ELSEWHERE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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