065
FXUS61 KCTP 012333
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA.
2) BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF
APRIL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO SOUTHERN PA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF APRIL
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. CAD
PATTERN BEHIND EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRIVE
COOL/MOIST AIR (HIGHS 50-60F) INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE DOWNSLOPE ALONG AND WEST TO THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT SENDS TEMPS INTO THE 70-80F RANGE IN WESTERN PA. BIG TEMP
SWING #2: A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL RETURNS TO CPA
INTO EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO APPROACH AND
POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION). A MORE INTERMITTENT, LIMITED COVERAGE
RAINFALL PATTERN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
BIG TEMP SWING #3 ARRIVES EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS CPA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR.
A SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
PRE-FRONTAL DESTABLIZATION. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT (MONDAY
MORNING) WILL BE -15 TO -20 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
(SUNDAY MORNING).
THE COOLDOWN LASTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (FIRST FULL WEEK OF
APRIL) WITH MAX TEMPS FCST BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS EVENING, WITH WORSENING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AIRFIELDS. MOREOVER, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA EARLY TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS IS AT KUNV BETWEEN
00-01Z, WHERE A CELL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE AIRPORT DUE
TO ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY, THOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SPARSE DESPITE ITS STRONG RADAR PRESENTATION (DBZ BETWEEN
55-65). THUNDER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AT OUR OTHER AIRFIELDS AS
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH
WANING INSTABILITY AND DISORGANIZED STORM MODE PRECLUDE MENTIONS
IN THE INITIAL TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
USHERING IN COOL, MOIST AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS, WITH LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST AIRFIELDS,
WITH THE LAMP SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF IFR AROUND 50%, THOUGH
IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KJST WHERE
DAYTIME MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR SCT CLOUD COVER.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...NUMEROUS SHRA WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT OSCILLATES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W, VFR ELSEWHERE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
AVIATION...TEARE
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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