181
FXUS61 KCTP 020940
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY DUE TO CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD PATTERN
KEY MESSAGES
1) BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND WITH
THE BEST ODDS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST ODDS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BIG TEMP SWING #1 OCCURS TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS +/- 25 DEGREES
VS. YESTERDAY IN THE NW & SE CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
TEMPERATURE SWING IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD
PATTERN. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX THUNDER PROBS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/US-219 WHERE INSTABILITY WILL MAXIMIZED.
BIG TEMP SWING #2: A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL
RETURNS TO CPA INTO EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO
APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4 (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). INTENSITY OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING AND A FEW LOOSELY
ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE RULE OUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY PM.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARE >1" ACROSS THE NW
ZONES WHERE 1-2+ INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST 72HR.
BIG TEMP SWING #3 ARRIVES EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. BAND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CPA WITH MAX POPS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING OF COLD FROPA
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE T-STORM
RISK AT THIS TIME. TEMP TRENDS MAY GO NEUTRAL TO NON-DIURNAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON EASTER SUNDAY PRECEDING A CHILLY START
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MON-WED
LIKELY REACHING A NADIR ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ARE FCST TUESDAY NIGHT OR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. I BEEN
UPDATING THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AS NEEDED.
AS EXPECTED, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG AND MOST OF THE
SHOWERS ARE GONE.
THE MAIN INTERESTING THING OVERNIGHT WAS HOW GUSTY WINDS
AT LNS LATE LAST EVENING DIED DOWN, ONLY TO BECOME GUSTY
THE LAST HOUR THERE (09Z).
EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PA TODAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A VERY STRONG PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A GUSTY WIND. THE
COLD AIR IS NOT REAL DEEP, MAINLY PULLED IN BY A LOW CENTER
THAT FORMED JUST SOUTH OF PA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. NOT MANY CASES OF SUCH A SHARP
DROP IN THE TEMPERATURE WITH A FRONT. NORMALLY THE COLD AIR
THIS SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TAKES TIME TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
CTPWRKTAF
ANYWAY, THE MAIN CHANGE I AM WORKING ON FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
IS TO EDGE OFF THE FOG SOME, MAIN THING WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THAT
WILL LIKELY LINGER UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. WITH THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE BULK OF THE STEADY SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WIDESPREAD FOG.CTPWRKTAF
AFTER TODAY, A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEARBY.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W, VFR ELSEWHERE.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH: CTPWRKTAF
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CTPWRKTAF
NONE.
CTPWRKTAF
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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