992
FXUS61 KCTP 021725
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY DUE TO CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD PATTERN
KEY MESSAGES
1) BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND WITH
THE BEST ODDS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE THROUGH EASTER
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST ODDS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BIG TEMP SWING #1 OCCURS TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS +/- 25 DEGREES
VS. YESTERDAY IN THE NW & SE CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
TEMPERATURE SWING IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD
PATTERN. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX THUNDER PROBS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/US-219 WHERE INSTABILITY WILL MAXIMIZED.
BIG TEMP SWING #2: A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL
RETURNS TO CPA INTO EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO
APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4 (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). INTENSITY OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING AND A FEW LOOSELY
ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE RULE OUT PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY PM.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARE >1" ACROSS THE NW
ZONES WHERE 1-2+ INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST 72HR.
BIG TEMP SWING #3 ARRIVES EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. BAND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CPA WITH MAX POPS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING OF COLD FROPA
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE T-STORM
RISK AT THIS TIME. TEMP TRENDS MAY GO NEUTRAL TO NON-DIURNAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON EASTER SUNDAY PRECEDING A CHILLY START
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MON-WED
LIKELY REACHING A NADIR ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ARE FCST TUESDAY NIGHT OR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD AIR DAMMING IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TODAY WITH NORTH EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA UNDER HEAVY CLOUD
COVER AND OVERCAST SKIES. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY IFR AND LESS
THAN 1,000FT AGL. AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPERIENCING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERING OF CLOUDS.
CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL IN THIS PACKAGE TO BE VFR IS KJST. A
FEW PLACES COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL JUST REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY, AND CLOUD BASES WILL STAY IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE IN CONVECTION IS TOO ISOLATED TO MAKE MENTION OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEARBY.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W, VFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...SCT SNOW/RAIN MIX.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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