451
FXUS61 KCTP 021907
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*CONTINUE TO SLOW THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY AS PERSISTENT
COLD WEDGE KEEPS CLOUDY/DAMP/COOL CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-99/US-15.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS EASTERN PA IN THE GLOOM WHILE WESTERN
PA EXPERIENCES A TEMPERATURE BOOM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER FOR EASTER MONDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS EASTERN PA IN THE GLOOM
WHILE WESTERN PA EXPERIENCES A TEMPERATURE BOOM THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
HUGE DIFFERENCES IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F ACROSS
THE WEST AND CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE
EAST. THIS TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD PATTERN. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAX
THUNDER PROBS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/US-219 WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGE-SHROUDING CLOUDS/FOG AND PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST OF I-99/US-215
AND AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG/EAST OF US-15.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL RETURNS TO CPA INTO
EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY
BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4 (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION). INTENSITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING AND A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY PM. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE >1" ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE 1-2+ INCHES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST 72HR. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST PA ON SATURDAY. SPC
OUTLINES A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SOUTHWEST PA
CLIPPING WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY ON FRIDAY AND THEN A MORE
WIDESPREAD MARGINAL RISK ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LIKELY IMPACTING EASTER MORNING SUNRISE
SERVICES. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF, BUT A ROUND OF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER FOR EASTER MONDAY AND
BEYOND.
TEMP TRENDS MAY GO NEUTRAL TO NON-DIURNAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON EASTER SUNDAY PRECEDING A CHILLY START TO NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ARE BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MON-WED LIKELY
REACHING A NADIR ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ARE FCST TUESDAY NIGHT OR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
FROM A PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE, SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
PA WITH A CLASSIC NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIGHTER/LESS CLOUDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE OUTLOOK TRENDS DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF APRIL, THOUGH
NEARBY FRONTS COULD STILL BRING BRIEF ROUNDS OF (MAINLY LIGHT)
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
COLD AIR DAMMING IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TODAY WITH NORTH EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA UNDER HEAVY CLOUD
COVER AND OVERCAST SKIES. CEILINGS ARE LARGELY IFR AND LESS
THAN 1,000FT AGL. AREAS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPERIENCING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERING OF CLOUDS.
CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL IN THIS PACKAGE TO BE VFR IS KJST. A
FEW PLACES COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL JUST REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY, AND CLOUD BASES WILL STAY IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED RAIN AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE IN CONVECTION IS TOO ISOLATED TO MAKE MENTION OF
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEARBY.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W, VFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...SCT SNOW/RAIN MIX.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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