371
FXUS61 KCTP 030041
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
841 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*CONTINUE TO SLOW THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY AS PERSISTENT
COLD WEDGE KEEPS CLOUDY/DAMP/COOL CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-99/US-15.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS EASTERN PA IN THE GLOOM WHILE WESTERN
PA EXPERIENCES A TEMPERATURE BOOM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER FOR EASTER MONDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS EASTERN PA IN THE GLOOM
WHILE WESTERN PA EXPERIENCES A TEMPERATURE BOOM THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
HUGE DIFFERENCES IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F ACROSS
THE WEST AND CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE
EAST. THIS TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD PATTERN. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAX
THUNDER PROBS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/US-219 WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGE-SHROUDING CLOUDS/FOG AND PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST OF I-99/US-215
AND AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG/EAST OF US-15.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL RETURNS TO CPA INTO
EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY
BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4 (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION). INTENSITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING AND A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY PM. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE >1" ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE 1-2+ INCHES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST 72HR. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST PA ON SATURDAY. SPC
OUTLINES A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SOUTHWEST PA
CLIPPING WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY ON FRIDAY AND THEN A MORE
WIDESPREAD MARGINAL RISK ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LIKELY IMPACTING EASTER MORNING SUNRISE
SERVICES. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF, BUT A ROUND OF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER FOR EASTER MONDAY AND
BEYOND.
TEMP TRENDS MAY GO NEUTRAL TO NON-DIURNAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON EASTER SUNDAY PRECEDING A CHILLY START TO NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ARE BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MON-WED LIKELY
REACHING A NADIR ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ARE FCST TUESDAY NIGHT OR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
FROM A PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE, SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
PA WITH A CLASSIC NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIGHTER/LESS CLOUDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE OUTLOOK TRENDS DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF APRIL, THOUGH
NEARBY FRONTS COULD STILL BRING BRIEF ROUNDS OF (MAINLY LIGHT)
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
ALL OF THE WESTERN TERMINALS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (~80-90%) IN
THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THE WHOLE THROUGH 10Z FRIDAY WITH
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONE
AIRFIELD THAT COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM WOULD
BE JST WHERE RECENT HREF GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE LESS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE COMPARED TO BFD/AOO/UNV. ANY WINDOW FOR
IMPROVEMENT AT JST WOULD COME BETWEEN 09-12Z WHERE A QUICK
TRANSITION FROM (L)IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS SEEM THE MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER CONCERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
AIRFIELDS WILL BE THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LLWS (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS BFD/JST) BETWEEN 04Z-15Z FRIDAY. LLWS CONCERNS OUTLINED
FAIRLY WELL IN NBM/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AS THESE AIRFIELDS ARE
JUST SOUTH OF A 50-60KT LLJ OUTLINED IN RECENT HREF MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE 00Z TAF CYCLE HAS INTRODUCED THESE MENTIONS WITH
HIGH (~60-70%) CONFIDENCE AT BFD AND MODERATE (40-50%)
CONFIDENCE AT JST WITHIN TARGETED TIMEFRAMES FOR EACH TERMINAL.
FURTHER EAST, A MIXED BAG OF OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT; HOWEVER, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER DETERIORATION
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE LIFR CONDITIONS SETTLE INTO EACH AIRFIELD (HIGH
CONFIDENCE AT MDT/LNS, MODERATE AT IPT), CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST 15-17Z FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS BEING THE MAIN
DRIVER FOR THESE RESTRICTIONS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
BASED ON HREF/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE WITHIN THE 17-20Z FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (50-70%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEARBY.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W, VFR ELSEWHERE.
TUE...SCT SNOW/RAIN MIX.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BEATY
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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