002
FXUS61 KCTP 030658
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*CONTINUE TO SLOW THE RISE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY AS PERSISTENT
COLD WEDGE KEEPS CLOUDY/DAMP/COOL CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-99/US-15.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS EASTERN PA IN THE GLOOM WHILE WESTERN
PA EXPERIENCES A TEMPERATURE BOOM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER FOR EASTER MONDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR DAMMING KEEPS EASTERN PA IN THE GLOOM
WHILE WESTERN PA EXPERIENCES A TEMPERATURE BOOM THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
HUGE DIFFERENCES IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F ACROSS
THE WEST AND CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE
EAST. THIS TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY A
CLASSIC SPRINGTIME CAD PATTERN. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MAX
THUNDER PROBS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/US-219 WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL MAXIMIZED.
THE COLD WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGE-SHROUDING CLOUDS/FOG AND PERIODS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST OF I-99/US-215
AND AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG/EAST OF US-15.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A MAJOR SURGE OF WARMTH FOR EARLY APRIL RETURNS TO CPA INTO
EASTER WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS FCST TO APPROACH AND POTENTIALLY
BREAK DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, APRIL 3-4 (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION). INTENSITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING AND A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY PM. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE >1" ACROSS THE NW ZONES WHERE 1-2+ INCHES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST 72HR. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST PA ON SATURDAY. SPC
OUTLINES A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SOUTHWEST PA
CLIPPING WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY ON FRIDAY AND THEN A MORE
WIDESPREAD MARGINAL RISK ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LIKELY IMPACTING EASTER MORNING SUNRISE
SERVICES. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD LIMIT MUCH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF, BUT A ROUND OF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TRENDING COLDER AND DRIER FOR EASTER MONDAY AND
BEYOND.
TEMP TRENDS MAY GO NEUTRAL TO NON-DIURNAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON EASTER SUNDAY PRECEDING A CHILLY START TO NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ARE BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE MON-WED LIKELY
REACHING A NADIR ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ARE FCST TUESDAY NIGHT OR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON GETS UNDERWAY IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
FROM A PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE, SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
PA WITH A CLASSIC NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIGHTER/LESS CLOUDY SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE OUTLOOK TRENDS DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF APRIL, THOUGH
NEARBY FRONTS COULD STILL BRING BRIEF ROUNDS OF (MAINLY LIGHT)
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH 12Z WILL TREND TOWARD GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ERODES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD LIFT KBFD
TO MVFR BY AROUND 09Z, WITH KJST POTENTIALLY REACHING VFR BY
09Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HREF. OUR CENTRAL TERMINALS
(KUNV, KAOO, KIPT) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH 14-15Z
WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING WILL HOLD MORE STEADY OVERNIGHT. IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR IS EXPECTED AT OUR TERMINALS IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KMDT, KLNS) BETWEEN 08Z-14Z DUE TO POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WILL BE TRACKED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
MOREOVER, LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS (KBFD, KJST, KAOO, KUNV) THROUGH 15-18Z FRIDAY,
CAUSED BY A 40-55 KT LLJ NOSING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (70-80%) IN LLWS IMPACTS IS AT KBFD, WITH
MODERATE (40-50%) CONFIDENCE AT KJST/KAOO/KUNV FARTHER FROM THE
JET AXIS.
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12-18Z
FRIDAY AS COLD AIR DAMMING ERODES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%)
OF VFR PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF OUR AIRFIELDS AFTER 18Z.
CONFIDENCE OF VFR IS MORE MODERATE (50-60%) AT KBFD, WHERE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND HIGHER MOISTURE COULD LIMIT CLOUD
CEILING HEIGHTS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AFTER 18Z, DRIVEN BY PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR KBFD WHERE SBCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND STEEPER 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE,
THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KIPT AND
KUNV LATER IN THE DAY AS CONVECTION ADVANCES EASTWARD. GIVEN
THE SCATTERED, LOOSELY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION,
PROB30S HAVE BEEN USED AT THESE SITES TO SIGNAL AT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THOUGH TIMING AND COVERAGE WILL BE
DETERMINED WITH LATER TAF PACKAGES.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH VFR IN THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MON...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH MVFR N/W AND VFR ELSEWHERE, WITH
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 3RD AND 4TH:
SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
HARRISBURG 86/1963 | 82/1999
WILLIAMSPORT 83/1963 | 84/1921
ALTOONA 81/1963 | 80/1950
BRADFORD 80/2010 | 72/1981
STATE COLLEGE 79/1963 | 81/1910
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...TEARE
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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