165
FXUS61 KCTP 250002
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF US-322
THIS AFTERNOON
2) NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
3) MORE SEASONABLE END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST
APRIL'S ON RECORD
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS/T-STORM LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
US-322 THIS AFTERNOON
FOCUS REMAINS ON A NW/SE CHANNEL OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(925-850 MB LIS OF -1 TO -2C) THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
THAT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND SE MVMT OF SHOWERS/SCT
LOW-TOPPED TSRA NEAR A KBFD TO KFIG/KUNV AND KHGR LINE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS DURING THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN
THE SHRA/TSRA AFTER 00Z SAT AS IT ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY
COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR ACRS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH CAPE IS THIN/WEAK, A FEW GUSTY (BELOW SVR LIMITS) A FEW
LOW-TOPPED TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z.
PREVIOUS...
HREF/RRFS SHOW RAIN SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN LLVL CONVERGENCE ZONE (LOCATED NEAR OR
JUST TO THE SW OF US-322) ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
ANY T-STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NON SEVERE GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR PROFILES. A COUPLE OF SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PW VALUES GRADUALLY TICK HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING
TO ~ 1 INCH. HIRES MODELS SIGNAL A RELATIVE DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE INTO TONIGHT WITH MAX POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
APRIL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
THUMB OF LOWER MI TO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA/VA TIDEWATER REGION
SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST
LLVL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE. CAD
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A 24HR MAXT CHANGE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES TO THE DOWNSIDE VS. FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE
BENEFICIAL VARIETY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WERE MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST. RAIN ENDS IN TIME TO SALVAGE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL 2026. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD INTRODUCE A FROST RISK IN SOME PARTS OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MORE SEASONABLE END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S ON RECORD
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE THROUGH
THE 23RD. THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE
OUT THROUGH MONTH-END AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS COOLER ON THE
MARGIN WITH MORE SEASONABLE DAYS AND NIGHTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY A
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO MAY.
A
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSORMS ARE OVER WITH.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY EDGE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
FOR THE TIME BEING, LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MORE
OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY, AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BETTER
CIGS ETC FOR FLYING WILL BE ON MONDAY INTO PERHAPS THE FIRST
PART OF TUESDAY. WET CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...A WET DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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