178
FXUS61 KCTP 250119
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
919 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD ON SAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
2) MORE SEASONABLE END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST
APRIL'S ON RECORD
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
APRIL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD IN THE NE 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA FOR SAT. RAIN, CLOUDS, AND CAD PRESENTING LLVL FLOW FROM
THE E THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SEEMS LIKE A RECIPE FOR A COOL
SPRING DAY.
PREVIOUS...
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
THUMB OF LOWER MI TO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA/VA TIDEWATER REGION
SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST
LLVL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE. CAD
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A 24HR MAXT CHANGE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES TO THE DOWNSIDE VS. FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE
BENEFICIAL VARIETY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WERE MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST. RAIN ENDS IN TIME TO SALVAGE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL 2026. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD INTRODUCE A FROST RISK IN SOME PARTS OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
---------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLE END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S ON RECORD
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE THROUGH
THE 23RD. THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE
OUT THROUGH MONTH-END AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS COOLER ON THE
MARGIN WITH MORE SEASONABLE DAYS AND NIGHTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY A
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO MAY.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND OUTFLOW GUST FRONTS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSORMS ARE OVER WITH.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY EDGE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
FOR THE TIME BEING, LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MORE
OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY, AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BETTER
CIGS ETC FOR FLYING WILL BE ON MONDAY INTO PERHAPS THE FIRST
PART OF TUESDAY. WET CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...A WET DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page