109
FXUS61 KCTP 250523
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
123 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD ON SAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
2) MORE SEASONABLE END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST
APRIL'S ON RECORD
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
APRIL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF EARLY SUNDAY
HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD IN THE NE 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA FOR SAT. RAIN, CLOUDS, AND CAD PRESENTING LLVL FLOW FROM
THE E THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SEEMS LIKE A RECIPE FOR A COOL
SPRING DAY.
PREVIOUS...
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
THUMB OF LOWER MI TO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA/VA TIDEWATER REGION
SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST EAST/SOUTHEAST
LLVL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE. CAD
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A 24HR MAXT CHANGE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES TO THE DOWNSIDE VS. FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE
BENEFICIAL VARIETY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WERE MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST. RAIN ENDS IN TIME TO SALVAGE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL 2026. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD INTRODUCE A FROST RISK IN SOME PARTS OF THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLE END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S ON RECORD
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE THROUGH
THE 23RD. THE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE
OUT THROUGH MONTH-END AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS COOLER ON THE
MARGIN WITH MORE SEASONABLE DAYS AND NIGHTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY A
BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO MAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH INTO OUR AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN COULD BEGIN IN KBFD AS EARLY AS 07Z.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ALONG THE PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY
STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
LARGE PORTIONS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY DIP INTO OR BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY, AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF, BUT MVFR WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BETTER CIGS FOR
FLYING WILL BE ON MONDAY INTO PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
WET CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...A WET DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BOWEN
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