729
FXUS61 KCTP 250706
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY
2) MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
APRIL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY SUNDAY
COOL AND WET START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL AS RAIN
GRADUALLY EXPANDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CPA THROUGH
THE EVENING. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS BY SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
IN THE 0.50-1.00" RANGE WHICH WILL BE PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL
FOR MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA.
CLASSIC CAD PATTERN COMPLETE WITH MOIST EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER VS. FRIDAY. A RATHER
DREARY AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ENDING FROM NW-SE BY ~15Z SUNDAY.
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATING OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FROST RISK
ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE
OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH INTO OUR AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN COULD BEGIN IN KBFD AS EARLY AS 07Z.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ALONG THE PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY
STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
LARGE PORTIONS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY DIP INTO OR BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY, AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF, BUT MVFR WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BETTER CIGS FOR
FLYING WILL BE ON MONDAY INTO PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
WET CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...A WET DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BOWEN
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