782
FXUS61 KCTP 251759
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A BIT FASTER ON THE ENDING TIME OF THE STEADY RAIN LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY.
2) MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
APRIL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY SUNDAY.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN OVER WESTERN PA AS OF EARLY AFT.
RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUPPORT THIS AREA TO KEEP MOVING ALONG,
WITH LITTLE IF ANYTHING LEFT LATE TONIGHT. THIS RAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART PA NOW, WILL HELP WITH EDGING OFF THE REAL DRY
CONDITIONS SOME.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE SOME SUN LATER ON, BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL.
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATING OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FROST RISK
ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE
OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST DAY TO DRY OUT FOR OUTSIDE WORK,
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MORE WET CONDITIONS FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THINGS DRY OUT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. FROST
AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH IF NOT CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW SIGNAL WELL OUT INTO LONGER TIME FRAMES TO CUTOFF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OR NEARBY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA,
KEEPING THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH NOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN OHIO WILL BEGIN
TO ENCROACH INTO OUR AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OURS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN COULD BEGIN IN KBFD AS EARLY AS 07Z.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ALONG THE PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY
STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
LARGE PORTIONS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING.
CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY DIP INTO OR BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY, AS THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF, BUT MVFR WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND BETTER CIGS FOR
FLYING WILL BE ON MONDAY INTO PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
WET CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS.
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...A WET DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
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