016
FXUS61 KCTP 252341
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A BIT FASTER ON THE ENDING TIME OF THE STEADY RAIN LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL WITH
RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SUNDAY.
2) MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NOTICEABLY COOLER START THE LAST WEEKEND OF
APRIL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY SUNDAY.
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN OVER WESTERN PA AS OF EARLY AFT.
RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUPPORT THIS AREA TO KEEP MOVING ALONG,
WITH LITTLE IF ANYTHING LEFT LATE TONIGHT. THIS RAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART PA NOW, WILL HELP WITH EDGING OFF THE REAL DRY
CONDITIONS SOME.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE SOME SUN LATER ON, BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL.
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATING OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FROST RISK
ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE
OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST DAY TO DRY OUT FOR OUTSIDE WORK,
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MORE WET CONDITIONS FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THINGS DRY OUT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. FROST
AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH IF NOT CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW SIGNAL WELL OUT INTO LONGER TIME FRAMES TO CUTOFF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OR NEARBY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA,
KEEPING THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH NOW.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY, WITH STEADY RAIN DIMINISHING TO LIGHT RAIN & DRIZZLE
LATER THIS EVENING. POCKETS OF LIFR DRIVEN BY LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) AND ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) LATER THIS EVENING.
THE STEADIER RAIN CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL PA
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 06Z AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE LOW OVER
DELMARVA WILL KEEP DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION AND
SHIFT WINDS TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY, ULTIMATELY BRINGING IN
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONWIDE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SUNDAY, WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BEING LIKELY (80% CHANCE) AFTER 18Z-19Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN EXPECTED REGIONWIDE.
THU...VFR/MVFR FAVORED AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...TEARE
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