031
FXUS61 KCTP 260527
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
127 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HURRYING UP PRECIP END TIME AGAIN, BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ON THE RIDGES ARE IN STORE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDY/FOGGY/DRIZZLY OVERNIGHT.
2) MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLOUDY/FOGGY/DRIZZLY OVERNIGHT.
FRONT FROM THE WEST RODE RIGHT UP OVER THE COLD WEDGE. CAD TOO
THICK AND HAS FENDED OFF ATTEMPTS TO BREAK IT DOWN. MAYBE
MORNING AND MIXING WILL HELP, BUT CLEARING FROM SUBSIDENCE ISN'T
EXPECTED TO REACH MOST OF THE CWA (MAYBE DOES IN THE FAR NW)
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP STILL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND ONLY LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED AFTER MAYBE ANOTHER 2 HOURS.
HAVE ADDED MENTIONS OF FOG ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE
OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO START MAY ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST DAY TO DRY OUT FOR OUTSIDE WORK,
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MORE WET CONDITIONS FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THINGS DRY OUT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. FROST
AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH IF NOT CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW SIGNAL WELL OUT INTO LONGER TIME FRAMES TO CUTOFF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OR NEARBY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA,
KEEPING THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH NOW.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY, WITH ONLY DRIZZLE REMAINING FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. POCKETS OF LIFR DRIVEN BY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STICK AROUND THE NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION AND
SHIFT WINDS TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY, ULTIMATELY BRINGING IN
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONWIDE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SUNDAY, WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BEING LIKELY (80% CHANCE) AFTER 18Z-19Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN EXPECTED REGIONWIDE.
THU...VFR/MVFR FAVORED AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN/TEARE
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