991
FXUS61 KCTP 261225
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
825 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE RIDGES TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY
TO CLEARING LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING LATER TODAY.
2) A COLDER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO
DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG
WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLEARING LATER TODAY.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO BURN OFF. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION
TODAY WILL AID IN CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL, BEFORE BEING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MONDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AS NOTED
BELOW, APRIL WILL END ON A COOL NOTE. ALSO THIS WEEK WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES TO BE ON THE WET SIDE.
MAY HAS A TRACK RECORD THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS TO FEATURE SOME
RATHER COLD CONDITIONS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLDER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST
APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START MAY
ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
AS NOTED ABOVE, MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST DAY TO DRY OUT FOR
OUTSIDE WORK, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MORE WET CONDITIONS FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THINGS DRY OUT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. FROST
AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH IF NOT CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW SIGNAL WELL OUT INTO LONGER TIME FRAMES TO CUTOFF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OR NEARBY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA,
KEEPING THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH NOW.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY, WITH ONLY DRIZZLE REMAINING FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. POCKETS OF LIFR DRIVEN BY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STICK AROUND THE NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY
MOUNTAINS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION AND
SHIFT WINDS TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY, ULTIMATELY BRINGING IN
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGIONWIDE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SUNDAY, WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BEING LIKELY (80% CHANCE) AFTER 18Z-19Z
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR LIKELY.
TUE...VFR EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS WEST TO EAST AS CEILINGS
LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN EXPECTED REGIONWIDE.
THU...VFR/MVFR FAVORED AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...BOWEN/TEARE
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