205
FXUS61 KCTP 261810
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON THE RIDGES TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY
TO CLEARING LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING LATER TODAY.
2) A COLDER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO
DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG
WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLEARING LATER TODAY.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO BURN OFF. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION
TODAY WILL AID IN CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL, BEFORE BEING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY.
MONDAY LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AS NOTED
BELOW, APRIL WILL END ON A COOL NOTE. ALSO THIS WEEK WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES TO BE ON THE WET SIDE.
MAY HAS A TRACK RECORD THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS TO FEATURE SOME
RATHER COLD CONDITIONS.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLDER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST
APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START MAY
ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK.
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
AS NOTED ABOVE, MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST DAY TO DRY OUT FOR
OUTSIDE WORK, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MORE WET CONDITIONS FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THINGS DRY OUT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. FROST
AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH IF NOT CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS SHOW SIGNAL WELL OUT INTO LONGER TIME FRAMES TO CUTOFF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OR NEARBY THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA,
KEEPING THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH NOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST & DRAWS DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, WHICH ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE HREF SHOWS A
WEAK SIGNAL (AROUND 30% COVERAGE) FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z MONDAY, WITH LESSER SIGNALS ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS
REASON, I INCLUDED 4SM BR AT KLNS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME TO
SIGNAL AT THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, WITH NO
OTHER RESTRICTIONS ADDED AT THIS TIME.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD ERODE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z AS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE MIXES OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REGIONWIDE VFR IN THE MORNING, WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA LATER IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVE
IN.
WED...VFR/MVFR EARLY, TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THU...VFR/MVFR FAVORED AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST.
FRI...VFR FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...TEARE
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