609
FXUS61 KCTP 262338
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
738 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DISCUSSED/DEBATED FROST MENTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE NORTH.
2) A COLDER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST APRIL'S TO
DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO START MAY ALONG
WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK. ALSO WET AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLEARING. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH.
CLEARING IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS AS SEEN IN SAT LOOPS, BUT
STILL CLOUDY OVER HAPPY VALLEY. STILL EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO WIN OUT EARLY TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE VERY LIGHT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, PERHAPS CALMER IN THE EAST THAN WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH AND
ISOLATED COLD SPOTS ELSEWHERE. PLACES N AND E OF BFD HAVE THE
BEST (50%) CHC TO GET SOME FROST FORM. HOWEVER, ONLY MCKEAN CO
IS ALREADY COUNTED AS BEING IN THE GROWING SEASON, AND THEREFORE
DESERVING OF FROST ADVISORIES. IN THIS CASE, NOT EVEN THE WHOLE
COUNTY/ZONE IS LIKELY TO GET THE 2M TEMPS DOWN TO 35-36F (WHEN
THE NEAR-GROUND TEMPS ARE TYPICALLY FIRST AT RISK OF GETTING TO
FREEZING AND FROSTING UP THE VEGETATION). WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
FROST ADVISORIES, BUT THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF FROST ALONG THE
NY BORDER COUNTIES. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS AS WE DIP NEAR DEWPOINTS. WHEN/WHERE FOG FORMS, IT
USUALLY NEGATES OR SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHES THE WORRY FOR
FROST.
PREVIOUS...
TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. MONDAY
LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AS NOTED
BELOW, APRIL WILL END ON A COOL NOTE. ALSO THIS WEEK WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES TO BE ON THE WET SIDE.
MAY HAS A TRACK RECORD THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS TO FEATURE SOME
RATHER COLD CONDITIONS.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLDER END TO WHAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE WARMEST
APRIL'S TO DATE; MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START MAY
ALONG WITH RENEWED FROST/FREEZE RISK. ALSO WET AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.
MOST SITES ARE TRACKING TOP 5-10 WARMEST APRIL-TO-DATE. THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD WARMTH OVER THE PAST 3-4 WEEKS
IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH MONTH-END WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY. THIS
LATE SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO FEATURE A RENEWED FROST/FREEZE
RISK FOR A GROWING SEASON THAT STARTED WEEKS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL/HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
AS NOTED ABOVE, MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST DAY TO DRY OUT FOR
OUTSIDE WORK, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MORE WET CONDITIONS FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. THINGS DRY OUT FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. FROST
AND EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTH IF NOT CENTRAL ZONES.
MODELS HINT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH
TO THE WEST, TO TAPER THE COLD SOME, BUT ALSO SUPPORT AN
INCREASE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MORE OFTEN NOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO FORM, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE DENSE (VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4SM). THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG IS AT IPT AND LNS,
THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT MDT, UNV, AND AOO AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A FEW
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REGIONWIDE VFR IN THE MORNING, WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA LATER IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVE
IN.
WED...VFR/MVFR EARLY, TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THU...VFR/MVFR FAVORED AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST.
FRI...VFR FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...BAUCO
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